90 to 1 and 360 to 1 and 4500 to 2

I have been playing poker for 15 months, and I have done some amazing things.

1. Finished 1 out of 90 today.
2. Finished 1 out of 360 once.
3. Finished 2 out of 4500 once.
4. And I have finished 1 out of 45 at least 30 times.
5. I know how to play positions. I know how to take a all in bet.
6. And I found similar things in stock trading.
7. There are no need to go all in on shorts now.
8. I folded JJ today, with K9 and 33 went all in. I could win that hand.
9. And I was in last place since 30, and I finished no.1 Several times I went all in and survived. You have to be lucky.
10. And I made great decisions.
11. Now back to trade, yesterday's plan was good. I should not enter qqqq puts.
12. Short AZO and sell SRS put are OK.
13. If this morning I sold SRS at 62, at opening, that will be great!
14. And if I bought UCO at 9.1 today and I can sell at 10.3.
15. If I check all the great traders, they don't put themselves in all in situation.
16. There are no moral victory in life. AA can run into a straight or flush.
17. So I made bad decisions today, I should not try qqqq puts, yesterday's HBC and qqqq puts were wrong too.
18. After I escaped SRS and AMZN at great profit yesterday morning, I should wait another day, which is today. Then, I may enter SRS and SRS puts at the end of the day, then I will be like 2K above now.
19. So in trade, like the AMZN short (waited 3 days after earnings) and AZO, waited 3 days after people mentioned.
20. And like the SRS OTM puts, you give yourself lot of room. But I was too aggressive.
21. So let's be careful, hope to trade another day.
22. Now I cross my finger and I will be 1 out of 1 million.
23. My talent is there, I just need to do what I did great in a poker tourney. Be aggressive when others are not. And know how others behave.
24. I need to know market better.

Tomorrow

I have a feeling that we'll get a huge rally on Monday, and I am heavily short.

1. Tomorrow, I'll use any chance to exit SRS, all of them. And the puts, all of them. It may cost me 1K doing that, assume it's an up day.
2. And I'll buy 20 qqqq calls. Reason, I have 3 QID, 10 qqqq puts.
3. Then, when the plan is announced, if the market dives, sell all the puts. If the market rallies, sell all the calls.
4. Long term I am bearish, but I think I can buy SRS back at 50s if not 40s if we have a 10% rally on Monday. And I can sell the expensive puts again.
5. I may miss the opportunity.
6. That market go straight to hell, which is unlikely, the PPT will rally and support the market, then it may tank. So I should have opportunity to buy SRS at 55, 50, even 45.
7. SRS will go to 150 to 200 before it's all said and done.
8. Now I don't want to have my head handed to me.

New way

1. First, identify the main trend.
2. Second, identify the short term overbought and oversold conditions. Let's say it's in the middle.
3. Third, use XT,SOH,1Option, EW to gather directions.
4. When a new trend starts, join early, use 2x ETFs or options. Once it moves to oversold/overbought conditions, reduce the exposure and take profit.
5. If the trends reverse, then exit quickly.
6. When the market hits an extreme end, time to use 2xETFs or options for a counter rally. Start with 1/8. When it go against you, add another 1/4 after, say another 5-10%. Then another 1/2 after 5-10%.
7. When market goes with you, if you start early, double the size 1/8. Take the ride and then exit.
8. This always works and works better in volatile market like right now.
9. I can use SRS only and make a killing.
10. Have to have a feel on it. When extreme comes, be brave.
11. SRS was in 49s once, in Jan.5th, it bounced to 50? That's the time to be aggressive, even I had 2 positions already. And I exited at 74!
12. Then it went from 70 back to 48 just 3 days ago, I went in early by selling two SRS puts at 55; and next day enter one at 52. It's a solid play. But the correct one should be: At 48, enter 1 position. At 52, enter another one, plus selling two puts. This way, I will do far better. At 59, even with Atilla's call for all in, I should do it slowly.
13. Now, the QID, is bad. I will hold for the ultimate 600 call sometime in 2009.
14. Rest, I will stop trading. I will enter under two cases:
15. 1. The fast dropping starts, catch the momentum, to the down side.
16. 2. At the bottom, like below 700, add 1/8, 2x. If continue to drop, add 1/4, options(2months); below 600, all in, options (2 months, using 2 x ETFs).
17. Can use the inverse ETFs puts, like SKF and SRS, on the way up.
18. Always keep at least 15K in ET. So now I have 20K left, already used 5.7K.
19. For parents, when it's below 700, time to enter the POT/AAPL/GOOG puts. Be aggressive, that is, only 20-30% down. Don't need 50% down. Jan 2010.
20. I think for my POT, I chose 25 and 15 on MOS. If I choose 35 and 20, I can close them when POT in 80s and MOS in 40. Will be better profit if you're aggressive selling the puts on the extreme cases.
21. Rest of the money, should be used to purchase the 2x ETFs calls or -2xETF puts. These can make a fortune. The problem is, you still have enough cash and you still have a balanced portfolio.

Be careful

1. I added QID and TWM in FD, ST accounts. And added DUG in ET.
2. Yes I am up on all these, following xtrends leads. But be careful here. Fed's new plan is next week, it will bring some fireworks. so it's ideal to reduce the shorts and add back later.
3. I had SRS and SPY and IWM puts, I think once we reach 750, I'll take a few off the table.
4. On the other hand, it's very likely it will blow pass 750 and go to 600-650 in a hurry, should sell be then.
5. On the way back, be careful as well, selling the OTM puts in names like POT and WFR is not a bad idea.
6. Don't touch PM, GDX.
7. Idea is to profit from the down side, don't chase. I think I am done with these.
8. And I will switch to 2x ETFs like QLD and UWM when it's 600.
9. in ET, use options, better catch the real thing and use March calls or even April calls.
10. One day miss, the result will be bad, specially in names like SKF and SRS. FAZ and FAS, I will not touch them, unless it's like 40% in a day.
11. There are many places to make money; and there are many places to lose money as well, even you're right on the direction. Timing and tools are important.
12. I think I will choose 1x options; 2x names are SRS and DUG,QID.
13. Don't touch 3x.
14. Once an extreme is reached (if I know or if xTrends know, then use 1x options). If wrong, then use 2x options; then 3x options.
15. Selling OTM puts on the shares to purchased is not a bad idea. Give me two layers of protection. Like the SRS 55 puts.
16. I hope Fed won't jack up the market on Monday, if it it does, first is to exit SRS (hopefully still at profit) quickly. Sit on rest and add to them.
17. This is a fucking unbelievable time, mand yet no one knows for sure how to profit from it.
18. SH is sure thing, just too little.
19. Remember yesterday's poker, I use 1x to bring from 2.7 back to 8. And 6x to bring it back to 17. You have to take risks.
20. I need to keep a balanced act.
21. AMZN, I will buy puts once it reaches 60s.
22. But again, should hug the helpless harp seals instead of the strong one, HBC will be better puts than AMZN.

One day wrong

1. If I closed the long yesterday(market up 3%) and started short yesterday, I will be in heaven now.
2. After today's 3% drop, my SRS is still down (sold at 6.1, now need 7.6 to buy back) and SPY and IWm puts are close to be even.
3. Added SRS at 52.35 today, it closed at 55.7, so this one is good. Could buy today at 50.1, didn't put the trigger. Remember, for SRS to go down 18% in a day (yesterday's low was 48.1, and I watched for a while and didn't put the trigger. That's the time to be wild and brave. Should at least buy 100 shares; or even try the 55 puts at 4.1, now almost doubled to 8. I was thinking sell 45 puts for 4.4 and buy 55 calls yesterday, that could be a great move, can close the puts and calls.
4. What's more, even today when SRS was down hard, from 52 back to 50, I can get the calls (55) at 4.9, and now it's 8. That's how powerful the day trade is.
5. Now, let me summarize what's right for the future trades:
6. For leveraged, like SRS, should not hold for too long, take profit when you have one, specially if there is a shot up like 10%. Today should not count since it's recovering from yesterday's 18% drop.
7. For options, I should choose IYR and IYF, around 1K each, close to 1 or 0.9. For Fed. I think still got three weeks left. Don't try double ETFs.
8. Think to close 1 MOS puts in IRA and bet March puts? 1/3 now and 1/3 later?
9. Don't trust xTrends too much, and add gradually, in case I am wrong.
10. Looks like the Obama's package won't do anything, and it could be delayed by GOP. I think they need a market tanking as a cover to push it through.
11. When market hits 600, then it's time to do the 3x inverse ETFs puts, can get 100 points in one day, since market can rally 12% and the 3x financial can rally 25%, make it 75% on the down side too. Specially if it's close to the OEX, will be a dream.
12. IYR and IYF March puts maybe a better idea.
13. I don't think sol and attila are right this time either, they may get 700 in Feb, but not the 600 or 500. That will come later this year, like in Sept/Oct. I think we may hit low in Feb/March, then bounce; then crash again. Use it well.
14. SRS will be my main trade tool. IYF and IYR options.

Pure stupid

I followed xTrends and closed my TNA at 25.02. It closed at 25.7 and afterhour, it's 26.4. That's 500 shares!

1. And I sold SRS puts, 55 at 6.1. It closed at 58.6 and afterhour dropped to 55.9. Fuck. This time, my OTM puts may kick my ass!
2. And bought SPY 83 and IWM 43 puts. WTF.
3. The only good thing about the above, I have enough cash and these puts total about 2.8K. But SRS tied up 11K.
4. The correct way to do this, even in xtrends' multiple short posts, should be closing half TNA, even close them all. Should wait another day to enter shorts.
5. Now I have two chances to enter short, tomorrow AM, fade and sell quickly.
6. Or wait until this 10% move is done and over.
7. So the ideal play is, when market fades back from up 2-3% to only up 1%, close the shorts. And the market may continue to rise for another 10% this week and next.
8. Enter shorts and puts again before next week's big announcement.
9. If we rally into next week, it's likely to have a selloff after the announcement.
10. Anyway, now I think SRS may hit low 40s and SPY to 96.
11. That will be a good place to short.
12. Another thing to do, just sit tight and let them wipe my ass!
13. It has a small chance to break 850 to 870, even 890, then sell off next week after the packages, back to low 80s, even test 750 in Feb.

Reduced positions and second chance

1. I sold TNA in all except ET. Even ET was reduced from 7 to 5 positions.
2. Sold BAC calls at great profits; and closed TNA puts. Both are good.
3. Now I got second chance, and I need to use it well.
4. It's 33 in ET and 13 in ST.
5. ET, use OTM puts. If miss, that's OK. can continue to generate. AG, PM, long/short ETFs are OK.
6. TNA's puts continue my records in OTM, without a loss so far. Maybe this is my way of doing this.
7. First, 33 to 40 in ET. 13 to 15 in ST. Wait and wait some more.
8. Don't forget the main trends; don't forget the prudent way to do this (OTM).
9. And yes, I need go back to work since there is no sign that I can do this this year, even next year will be too optimistic. It's a long process, but if I can more 33 to 130, then it's a good start this year.
10. Wait for better entry price, for long and for short.