Today's action:
- Nasdaq closed 1.3% lower to 2434, with a bearish engulfing.
- ^VIX shot up 13% from historical low in recent weeks, which usually indicates a market top and major trend reversal. But the timing is always tricky and can be early for a few weeks. Like a month ago, it also shot up when Nasdaq closed sharply lower.
- QID closed up 2.4%. Looks like the market is tired and ^VIX's action indicates that we're near the market top. The great run since last June maybe over.
- Tomorrow market's reaction to earnings, such as MSFT, will tell us more about the market direction. BTW, the up trends in Nasdaq, S&P 500 since last June are still intact, unless Nasdaq can break below 2400 with huge volume, bulls still can claim it's a consolidation, not a major correction.
- RIMM down to 127. As I mentioned yesterday, it went down from triple tops and 13 EMA crossed 50 EMA, it's just a matter of time it will go down to the 100 area.
- PM shares, GG,AEM,GLD closed down 1-2%, but looks like consolidation.
- Silver shares, SSRI and PAAS closed down less than 1%, and it may pull back since both have a great run recently.
- USO,OIH and XLE all closed sharply lower. Yesterday's reaction was over and back to basics: economy maybe slowing, and as a result, oil demand should lighten up as well.
Plan:
- Watch PM shares, will not add unless there is a 3-5% pullbacks in GG and AEM. May even consider take partial profit on SSRI and PAAS.
- Watch QQQQ, will not add QID unless it decisively turns lower.
- Add RIMM Jan 2008 put on any big bounce.
- Won't touch energy shares for now.
- Will watch FXI, if it shoot back up, may consider buy a put option.
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