Volume picks up

1. Fed didn't say anything bad, and that moved the market? I don't trust this first reaction to the news, and will see what happens tomorrow.
2. Nasdaq is up 0.6% and Dow is up 0.9%. QID is down 1.8%. Won't add QID until I see clearly what's next for the market.
3. For the time being, I still like QID for this year and think market will have a sharp correction to start a bear market sometime this year. But if the soft landing is real, then there is a chance it's won't start a bear market, but I doubt it.
4. RIMM closed up more than 4 to almost 128 with light volume. I like the Jan.2008 puts on RIMM and will add more if it hits 130 or higher. It's just a matter of time before it breaks down. Bulls try to scare weak bears to cover the short positions, that may delay its decline for a short time, but over a year, it won't make any difference.
5. SSRI and PAAS all hit new highs today. They're a little tired, but long term, both of them will go a lot higher. SLV has not break out to new high yet, so we have long way to go.
6. GDX, AEM and GG moved higher as well. GLD has not break last year's high, so we have a long way to go on these PM shares. I also like AUY and GRS.
7. USO,OIH and XLE were all higher today. I don't like to buy them now. Maybe a dead cat bounce. Long term, I like OIH. But not now, I think we may have a recession due to the housing bubble burst, then economy will slow, oil demand will be gone.
8. Let's see how market reacts to GOOG's earning tomorrow, my view is it will move at least 10% down or up in the next month after its earning release today. GOOG pretty much blow away both bottom and top line numbers. But, that may not be enough for some investors.
9. Tomorrow I'll only add PM shares on weakness and RIMM put if it breaks above 130 or more. Both cases, I'll add gradually.

A slow day

1. A slow day in market, people are waiting. Next three days we'll have enough news to move the market, at least get volume.
2. Nasdaq is up 0.3%.
3. Sold ABX and bought SSRI,PAAS and AEM today. Now I started to build up my SSRI,PAAS and AEM positions.
4. Long term, I think silver will outperform gold, and as a result, I need to beef up silver holdings.
5. RIMM is down 1 point again to close at 123.49. It needs to break 120 and stay below 120 for a few days to confirm the break of the neckline of the HS pattern. Then a major down trend is on the way. Today's volume is light. But since I have RIMM puts, a down day is a down day and I'll take it.

Today's action and plan

1. Today Nasdaq went up early and then closed down, up 0.2% at the close. Looks like people are not sure about buying or selling before the dump of the news later this week. My sense is, it will move down once the dust is settled.
2. QID is still a good way to play the market for the next few months.
3. RIMM was down today and almost broke its neckline on the way down. See more down side from here.
4. AEM and GG consolidated recent gains, so I'll add again if they pull back further.
5. PAAS and SSRI were all at new record highs early today and then took a break. I view this as positive, they need to consolidate and gain strength before the next rally. Next few days they may move sideway or move down. But SLV is strong recently and it may break 140 soon.
6. I reduced ABX, NEM and GLD today. Moved part of funds to AEM and GDX. Will add more later.
7. CCJ and FRG are on my watching list. I think both of them got great potential because of uranium bull market for the next 20 years.
8. GOOG will report on Wednesday, it can move the tech market. Watch it closely. It is at critical $500 level also.
9. I see GOOG move to $450 or $550 after the earning report, that is, a 10% move. I don't see it stays at $500. May consider a straddle or strangle option play, but it's too expensive for straddle. Strangle is not that expensive, but if GOOG doesn't move, then it's dead money.

Positions

For PM positions:

1. SSRI and PAAS have the best momentum, but a little over bought. So I'll consider to sell if there is a big run again this week. But will hold them if the move is not huge. Remember, PM is volatile too, it goes up quick and goes down quick, I'll give them room to run its course.
2. AEM and GG are starting to move up, so I'll hold them and add if there is pullback.
3. ABX and NEM. I'll continue to hold, won't add since I think GG and AEM are better PM stocks than ABX and NEM. May consider to switch to GDX.
4. GLD and SLV. I'll continue to hold, and may change them to GDX later.
5. ^HUI indicates we maybe in another major up trend, so the game plan is to hold GDX and add on weakness.
6. Should consolidate PM position to one big GDX position, plus PAAS, SSRI, AEM and GG.

Tech positions:

1. QID. Continue to add. The more I read the market and charts, the more convinced I am that it's the start of the down trend. Hold and add on weakness.
2. RIMM. Buy Jan. 08 put is a good way to play this volatile stock. It may have a few strong bounce left, I don't see it last to the end of the year. As a matter of fact, once iPhone is released in June, we should see great pressure on RIMM to cut price to compete. This is a better play than QID. I'll add aggressively if there is big bounce in RIMM.
3. ORCL. Consider to reduce or sell all if Nasdaq starts to turn.

Uranium play:

1. Consider to add CCJ. Small position at a time. This is long term play of uranium. It can easily double or triple in the next 5 years.
2. FRG. A speculative play in uranium and gold. Consider to add. It can easily double or triple in the next 2 to 3 years.

Week Review (1-22-07 to 1-26-07)

What happened:

1. Nasdaq is little changed this week. QQQQ closed down from 44.17 to 43.57 this week. QID closed up from 52.40 to 53.74.
2. PM stock did really well this week, ^HUI closed up from 318 to 332 this week. GLD was up from 63 to 64.17, SLV was up from 128 to 133.55.
3. Both AEM and GG were up about 8% this week; PAAS and SSRI were up 10% this week.
4. RIMM closed up from 124.35 to 125.36 for the week. This is my only losing trade idea for the week. And it puzzles me on its strength. But until there is a new development, I consider this is the best short. It will be in the 60s or lower by the end of this year, if not lower and sooner. That's more than a 50% hair cut.

Plan for next week:

1. I think the market is near the top and the next major move is down, not up.
2. Next week we have Fed. meeting and earnings, how market reacts to these news is more important than the news. I predict Nasdaq will lose 2-4% to complete the reversal next few weeks.
3. Gold should stay above $620 and may move pass $650, which is a key resistance level. If it breaks $650, and stay above $650, then the next major up leg is in place.
4. Continue to add AEM, GG, PAAS and SSRI on big pull back. The action in GLD and SLV indicates we may have a consolidation in place, but long term bullish view is intact.
5. Continue to add QID on big correction or, if Nasdaq decisively breaks blow 2400.
6. Continue to add RIMM Jan. 2008 put on any strength.
7. Watch USO, OIH and XLE. I don't know for sure what's next for them. So will not add unless there is a drastic correction over 10% or more.
8. Watch FXI, BIDU. It's China play. Since it's over extended for several months, looking to buy puts if there is a big run up. Long term, FXI is good very long term stock; BIDU is a speculative play.
9. Start to watch FRG as well, if it falls below $9, I'll consider to buy it. It's the speculative play in PM.

1-25-07 Summary and Plan

Today's action:

1. Nasdaq closed 1.3% lower to 2434, with a bearish engulfing.
2. ^VIX shot up 13% from historical low in recent weeks, which usually indicates a market top and major trend reversal. But the timing is always tricky and can be early for a few weeks. Like a month ago, it also shot up when Nasdaq closed sharply lower.
3. QID closed up 2.4%. Looks like the market is tired and ^VIX's action indicates that we're near the market top. The great run since last June maybe over.
4. Tomorrow market's reaction to earnings, such as MSFT, will tell us more about the market direction. BTW, the up trends in Nasdaq, S&P 500 since last June are still intact, unless Nasdaq can break below 2400 with huge volume, bulls still can claim it's a consolidation, not a major correction.
5. RIMM down to 127. As I mentioned yesterday, it went down from triple tops and 13 EMA crossed 50 EMA, it's just a matter of time it will go down to the 100 area.
6. PM shares, GG,AEM,GLD closed down 1-2%, but looks like consolidation.
7. Silver shares, SSRI and PAAS closed down less than 1%, and it may pull back since both have a great run recently.
8. USO,OIH and XLE all closed sharply lower. Yesterday's reaction was over and back to basics: economy maybe slowing, and as a result, oil demand should lighten up as well.

Plan:

1. Watch PM shares, will not add unless there is a 3-5% pullbacks in GG and AEM. May even consider take partial profit on SSRI and PAAS.
2. Watch QQQQ, will not add QID unless it decisively turns lower.
3. Add RIMM Jan 2008 put on any big bounce.
4. Won't touch energy shares for now.
5. Will watch FXI, if it shoot back up, may consider buy a put option.

1-24-07 Summary and tomorrow's plan

Today's action:

1. AEM and GG was down more than 2% early today and closed up more than 2% today. SSRI and PAAS were even stronger, only in red for a very short of time and closed up strong.
2. GLD closed strong, against weak oil and strong dollar.
3. This indicates PM's rampant strength, dip is bought quickly today, on back of yesterday's strong performance.
4. QID closed down 3%. I have to take a longer view on this and think the thesis that economy is slowing and will greatly reduce corporate earning in the coming months, if this is true, then QID should do really well in the coming months. I maybe early this time.
5. RIMM closed at 128. Its chart shows triple tops and 13 EMA will cross 50 EMA, both are very bearish signs.

Plan:

1. Add GG, AEM, GDX, PAAS and SSRI on pullback.
2. Buy Jan. 2008 put on RIMM if it's up big again, like above 130. Keep enough cash to add this if it hits 135, 140.
3. Watch ^GDM and ^HUI closely. If ^HUI moves above 360 on huge volume, then it will indicate another major up leg for PM's secular bull market is on the way. In that case, I will add to GG, AEM, GDX again.
4. FRG is another risky bet on PM, but it's over extended and needs consolidation.
5. Wait on QID to at least consolidate and indicate the bulls are tired before I move back in.
6. Watch tomorrow's market reaction to earnings, MSFT reports after market close.

1-23-07 Summary and tomorrow's plan

Today's action:

1. RIMM is up more than 5 to 127. This is a surprise to me, the volume is average, that's the only bearish thing about RIMM today.
2. QID is up a little.
3. PM shares have a great day, AEM, GG, SSRI and PAAS are all up big today. Even GDX is up big today. I'm bullish on all these shares and will continue to add on any weakness. And it may confirm the small correction since start of the year in PM is over.
4. Today got chance to add RIMM Jan.08 120 put. Think in 1 year, specially after this year's market correction and iPhone's release in June, by Jan. 2008, RIMM will be a different company. It will be fortunate to have 50% of its current market cap. It takes great new product to compete in this very competitive cell phone markets, plus shrinking margin, all these will cause RIMM share to correct itself sharply.
5. USO's strength is mainly due the the news of strategic U.S. stockpiles increase, but it's a good news to gold as well. I think in the long run, gold will outperform oil, due to dollar's secular bear market that may last years if not longer. For now, I'll be cautious to add OIH and XLE. May reduce them if it run up again.

Tomorrow's plan:

1. Buy Jan.08 RIMM put again if it's up big again.
2. Buy AEM,GG,SSRI,PAAS and GDX on 2%-3% correction.
3. Start to watch BIDU again, if it touches 130 or more this week, will consider to buy Jan.08 put again.

1-22-07 summary and tomorrow's plan

1. RIMM is down more than 3 to 121. Tomorrow it may open up with TXN's earning news, but if you read TXN's earning carefully, actually it lowers sales and earning forcast for next quarter, that's bad news for mobile phone makers like RIMM.
2. I'll short RIMM on any strength and it will close lower tomorrow, to 120 or below. If it's up, then short it and hold. Target is still below 100 in 3 months, may reach there much sooner if market turns south.
3. AEM, GG, SSRI and PAAS's action today is not good. GLD and SLV's rally faded quickly. Will add on weakness, but keep a small portion at a time.
4. USO, OIH and XLE's action is really bad, turned from green to red in a hurry. That's not saying it can't turn around quickly, but I won't touch these three and will wait for better entry.
5. For tomorrow, short RIMM and buy QID maybe the best and safest.

Trade plan this week:

1. Short RIMM when it's above $125 level. Feb. 125 put can be used. I see RIMM down 6-12 points this week.
2. Add precious metal stocks like AEM, GG, SSRI and PAAS on weakness.
3. Add QID if it's below $51 again.

Trade ideas for week 1-22-07 to 1-26-07

Market prediction:

1. Nasdaq and S&P500 close 2-3% lower.
2. GLD closes up 2-3%. This is again to play the dollar trend and considering gold pulled back in the first week of the year.
3. USO and oil will continue to bounce next week, by 2% or more. OIH and XLE close up 3%. But there are wildcards there, so it's risky to play OIH and XLE for next week, IMHO.

Trade idea:

Long:

1. Best way to play gold is via precious metal stocks. In a long run, HUI index (precious metal stocks index) has a 4x leverage over gold.
2. The stocks I like in PM are: AEM, GG, PAAS and SSRI.
3. AEM is the best midcap gold stock, GG is the best largecap gold.
4. PAAS is the best silver stock in terms of production and cost, SSRI is the best silver stock in terms of reserves and discovery.
5. QID. This is to short QQQQ.

Short:

1. The best way to play next week's Nasdaq down side it to short RIMM. RIMM will close lower to around 115, plus or minus 3 points. Technically, RIMM is below 50MA and with Sales/Prices ration at 1 to 10, it's the most overvalued cell phone stock. Fundamentally, long term, it faces fierce competitions from mobile giants NOK, MOT, Samsung; and now AAPL is entering the fields with iPhone from up end market.

What happened in week 1-15-07 to 1-19-07

1. Nasdaq is down 2.1% for the week.
2. QQQQ is down 2.6% for the week.
3. GLD is up 1% for the week.
4. RIMM is down from 132.92 to 124.35.

Week 1-15-07

Market trend:

1. Think market will go down 2-4% this week due to poor earnings, and after a big runup the last 6 months.
2. If there is a correction, the market is near that, maybe in another 2-3 weeks, at most, we should see a 5% -10% correction in Nasdaq and S&P500.
3. Gold should move up about 2-5% this week.

1-12-07

Long term:

1. Consider precious metals as the best way to play dollar's down trend and U.S. market. Stock includes: GDX, GG, SSRI,PAAS.
2. Short QQQQ using QID.

Short term:

1. Short RIMM. Price now is 132.92. Target 100 in 3 months.
2. RIMM Jan 2008 110 put. Price is 9.6. Target is $30. I.E., RIMM will touch below 80 in 1 year.