Wait

Market and RIMM:

1. What a weak bounce today. I hoped to see a 1.3% bounce on Nasdaq (1/3 of yesterday's loss) and start to use QID and QQQQ put to play the market. There is a high possibility here the market will bounce and then start to fall sharply again.
2. RIMM got a weak bounce today. The official review will be on next Monday instead of this Friday. I have to interpret this as a bit weak indication that they need time (weekend) to prepare and spin the news. If it's good news, they'll let it out early and push up the shares.
3. I continue to believe market is heading lower, RIMM is heading much lower.
4. I will be patient and wait for the market to show me the true color. As far as I'm concerned, I hear yesterday's message loud and clear: market is heading lower, much lower.
5. It's not a good time to buy here, it's a good time to short any strength. Today, the market was weak and didn't show its true intention.

PM and uranium:

1. I used today's bounce to liquidate the last GDX, URZ and EMU positions.
   Now I can start fresh to build PM positions and uranium positions again.
2. The bounce in PM shares today is decent, better than the market average. It shows its strength.
3. From momentum point of view, AUY, KGC, SSRI, PAAS, URZ and FRG were strong today, so likely to consider them.
4. From valuation point of view, EMU, IAG, SLW, AEM are candidates to consider.

Wow

Today Dow down 416 to 12216, Nasdaq drop 97 to 2407, S&P 500 down 50 to 1399. The biggest drop since 9/11/2001. This is the day you don't want to miss, only a few days a year you can see action like this. Wow!

1. When I saw the news Chinese market crashed 9% this morning, I acted quickly and decisively, liquidated almost all the positions except the RIMM puts and QID. In a day like this, there is no place to hide, even the defensive sectors like PM.
2. I remembered well, last May when market had a correction, the precious metal index ^HUI dropped more than the market, I was determined not let this happen to me again.
3. Yes, I sold GDX early this morning at 40.7, it's not the high of the day, but higher than the close of 39.35.
4. Yes, I sold SSRI, AEM, IAG(at a loss, actually), SLW(at a loss), PAAS. All were not at high of the day, but none were at the low of the day either. Not bad. Overall, my PM shares were profitable.
5. Yes, I sold uranium stocks as well. URZ I sold at 4.86 and 5.05, EMU at 11.86 and 11.38. URZ's high for the day was 5.29 and low 4.6, it closed at 4.9. EMU's high today was 12.15, low 10.30, closed at 11.20. It's a great run for uranium stocks.
6. FRG was down more than 25% (at 10) today before closed at 11.98, down 10%. So today, if you traded at that 10-15 minutes window when it's around 10, you'd make 20% in one day! When I saw FRG at 10, I immediately logged in, but since the Yahoo quote has 20 minutes delay, I didn't buy FRG because it already climbed out of the hole.
7. Today my QID shot up almost 10% to 55.46.
8. My RIMM puts shot up as well, RIMM was down 8 to 138. Yesterday's RIMM put purchases looks like a genius today.
9. My QQQQ puts jumped a bug percentage today! I thought it was a loss.
10. I added QQQQ June and Sept. puts today, I added early, so both of them were up big today as a result.
11. I still have a small GDX, EMU and URZ positions. May sell them in a bounce.

What's next:

1. I think the correction is not over. I won't be surprised if it goes down another 5-15% in a few months. So I'll buy ultra shorts EFTs(QID,SDS, DXD and MZZ) or put options on any big rally during this correction.
2. I won't be surprised if this is the start of a new bear market for 2007.
3. The only sectors I like are PM, uranium, oil driller companies. But I won't add them now, I expect to get them at a much lower price.
4. The stocks on my wish lists are SSRI, PAAS, SLW, FRG, URZ, EMU, AEM, IAG, KGC, GRS, AUY, NG, EGO. Of course, GDX, GLD and SLV are core positions to consider. OIH is another one I'll watch. I'm looking for a 10% hair cuts on these stocks. For GLD, I think $600-620 are the areas I'll consider to buy.
5. China ETFs like FXI and PGJ will be attractive to me if they have another 10-20% hair cut.
6. RIMM is another stock to watch, it delays the release again, from Friday to next Monday. I don't see it can magically pull another trick to escape the down fall this time, but you never know. That's why I didn't add RIMM put today, instead I used QQQQ put. It's always risky if you are obsessed with one stock.

There is always another day, another chance in the market. That's what's great about the market, as long as you have money left, you can make a come back!

No one can predict future, but base on the information you have, do the best you can. Make the right decision, and act quickly and decisively. I tried my best today, it may not be the right decision, but at least today, it is right.

RIMM upgraded?

Uranium and PM stocks:

1. Today I have a decent day in all my positions, except RIMM.
2. AEM, GDX, QID,PAAS were up, SSRI, SLW and IAG were down a fraction. Nothing to concern about.
3. URZ continued its unbelievable movement, up 9.4% today. I'm thinking to trim the positions. EMU was flat. I think there is a possibility that URZ will be bought; otherwise, it's really hard to explain its 60% gain in two weeks. I'll keep watching. It's a very volatile stock: last year, it moved from 1.5 in Oct. to 4.5 in Dec., that's 300% in two months, then it's down to 3 in Jan. Now it's 5.7.
4. Overall market, I think there is a chance it entered a correction.

RIMM was up 6.77 to 146.77:

1. RIMM is the pain today, an analyst from RBC upgraded it, moved target from 145 to 180. For them, it's just a number, like in 2000, they can call QCOM $1000 stock and AMZN $600, there is no justification for these kind of analysis. When do you hear a downgrade from an analyst because it's near their target price? The just keep moving up. And when company reports bad news and shares down 20-30%, they downgrade the stock.
2. There are several reasons this upgrade is very important and very timely.
3. RIMM will release its 2006 official earning this Friday, and release its option probe result. It needs support, and the analyst gave it to them.
4. RIMM failed to break 140 levels three times, lot of shorts sit on 140, this upgrade forced weak shorts to cover.
5. After the official release, RIMM executives can sell their locked shares, millions of shares. They need a better price to sell, and this analyst provided the support.
6. RIMM was up 4 in pre-market with 1 million shares traded; then rest of the day, it was up 2.8 with 11 million shares traded. It's easy to move up a stock in pre-market than in regular hours.
7. So, there you have it, anyway you look at this, it's very suspicious.
8. My march puts are in very bad shape, I should know better and stick to my leaps. I didn't cover since it's not worth much now. If I keep them, there is a decent chance RIMM will crash and I get my money back.
9. I added March in the money (ITM) puts today, I think there is great chance it will be very profitable.
10. A few days back, I bought March puts when RIMM was at 138, and only sold a small positions when it hits 132. But kept the rest, this is a very costly mistake.
11. So this time, I will take profit from my March puts if RIMM pulls back.
12. And I will add another small positions on March ITM puts if it keep moving up tomorrow, I'll use 150 as a target.
13. Of course, the wise move is to add Sept. puts and Jan.08 puts. So maybe I'll consider both.
14. Sept. put is a great choice here, iPhone will be in market for 3 months by then, and summer usually is bad time for stocks. So let's focus on Sept. puts, and only use ITM for March.
15. Again, the key is small and gradual, don't move all in. It's not time to be hero, but to be cautious.

Week Review

Market:

1. Dow closed down 1% this week, after hitting one records after another the previous week. Nasdaq was up 0.7% and S&P down 0.3%.
2. Oil has the best showing in 2007 and recovered all this year's loss and some. With potential issues with Iran, it has more room to go.

PM:

1. Gold broke the $675 area and now just below the significant $700 level.
2. It can break it this week and move higher, or it will hit $700 and pull back. Considering the recent run, I won't be surprised the latter is true.
3. AEM, IAG, SSRI, SLW, PAAS and GDX all have a good week. With PAAS broke $30, showing the biggest momentum among these stocks.
4. I sold GG and exchanged into IAG and SLW. Will stay away from senior gold miners (ABX, NEM and GG) since small is better in gold miners.

Uranium:

1. Uranium hits $85 this week from $75 last week.
2. URZ has the best performance last week, up 20% for the week.
3. EMU is up 8%.

RIMM:

1. Critical week, RIMM will release official earning for 2006 and option probe result at the end of next week. I think likely after market close on Friday.
2. I'll watch how the market prepares and reacts for the release next week.
3. My June, Sept. Jan puts are OK as far as I'm concerned. But my March put is not in a good position, actually, a very bad position.

Better be lucky than good

My recent switch from FRG to EMU and URZ is as good as it gets. Since the switch, FRG is up less than 4% (which I missed), my URZ on average is up more than 30% and EMU on average is up more than 10%. It's better to be lucky than good.

1. Today is a good day for me.
2. Lone loser today is IAG, down 1.2%. I'll research on gold stocks this weekend to find out if my decision to switch from GG to IAG and SLW is correct.
3. Most gains today come from URZ (up 6.1%), PAAS (5.9%) and EMU (up 2.6%).
4. Other PM stocks were up as well. SSRI, SLW, AEM and GDX were all up.
5. QID was up 1% as well, from all time low yesterday.
6. RIMM was down a fraction again, which helps my puts.

Uranium is up and RIMM is down

Uranium, PM and market:

1. Uranium spot price hits $85 per lb this week, up 13% from last week's $75. Two weeks ago, the price was at $72. This is unbelievable.
2. And Cramer came out and built a bullish case for EMU. I don't trust his picks, it's a joke that one man can cover all the stocks and make you rich. but this one I agree, it's a long term play.
3. Today, EMU was up 2.9%, URZ up 3%, CCJ up 3.4% and FRG down 2.7%. It's a great run for uranium stocks recently.
4. FRG's loss is due to its sale of 4.7M shares for $60M. Obviously, FRG is happy with its recent gain and is happy to cash in. Not a bad move from long term perspective, the stock price may have a correction as a result, it's already over extended. I'll be a buyer when it's around $11 or lower, today it closed at 12.80.
5. PM shares were mixed, with gold and silver took a break. SSRI and PAAS were up a fraction, SLW, IAG and AEM were down.
6. Dow closed down and Nasdaq closed up, again repeated yesterday's performance. QID is at all time low, I will hold it. My PM and uranium positions keep my portfolio up.
7. My thesis of why market is overextended and overvalued is still true to me today as it's to me a month ago; actually, it's more true to me today than it's a month ago.

RIMM:

1. RIMM was down to 140. There are two major events that can move its price quickly, one is the official earning reports and the result of the options probe before or on March 3rd, and second one is the current quarter earning release in late March or early April.
2. I think the first one is at best a nonevent, that is, won't cause price to move lower; at worst, it may report larger than expected one time charge, and may implicate its co-CEOs, then its price will drop like a rock.
3. For current quarter's earning, several analysts already came out saying it's very strong, so they won't miss it. Just like last quarter, revenue will top analyst's view, but earning and margin below analyst's view. Market will react negatively to this kind of news, it's the same issue with internet stocks in spring 2000: shrinking earning on larger revenues means they run out of steam and try to squeeze the last dime out of their saturated market.
4. If the above is true this quarter, or in the next two quarters, then I think RIMM's bull run is over. It will correct at least 50%. But it's hard to time this, and RIMM may still have some momentum left.
5. Of course, if market turns south as I predicted, then RIMM is the first to go: just like in March 2000, after the peak, YHOO, JDSU, ARBA, CSCO and QCOM, these high growth stocks dived. It will happen to RIMM and AAPL this time. Actually, AAPL will do more harm to RIMM than all the analysts realized. AAPL will survive the crash, just like CSCO did, but RIMM may not, like JDSU and ARBA in 2000, it's a one product company. It's overvalued because wall street analysts use it every day and love it, that doesn't mean average consumer love it. This adds lot of premium to its stock price.
6. Yes, the crash maybe one month away, maybe six months away, even a year away, but it will happen.
7. If it's a year away, then it's my bad analysis and decision to get in so early. Lessons learned, and should focus on PM instead. It's difficult to short, very.
8. My trade purpose is not to prove I'm right, my purpose is to make money, all others are nonsense.

Gold breaks out

1. Gold broke $675 today. Silver was strong, dollar was strong, oil was strong. These show you that there are lot of money chasing assets. I believe a major up leg for gold and silver is in place, gold shall take out last year's high of $725 by the end of Spring.
2. PM stocks were very strong today. Can't complain. AEM up 5.4%, GG 4.3% , IAG 3.9%, GDX 3.7%, SLW 3.7%, PAAS 3.5%, SSRI 3.4%, GLD 3%, SLV 2.9%. They will be sharply higher by the end of Spring or early Summer.
3. I moved away from GG yesterday, since I'm afraid it will start to buy again. AEM, AUY, KGC, are all within its reach. Since it's hard to find gold reserves, it's cheaper for senior companies to just pay a high premium to buy junior or intermediate gold companies. If gold goes to $1000, $2000, people will forgive the high price they pay today.
4. After the close, AEM and PAAS delivered record earnings and revenues, their reserves increased. Pretty much good news all around. After hour, AEM was up 2.2% and PAAS up 0.3%.
5. I felt like I worked so hard on these PM positions and they shot up to reward me.
6. On the other hand, I worked hard on QID and RIMM too, but these two just didn't listen to me and continued to puzzle me. RIMM and QQQQ's recent actions don't make any sense. Sometimes, irrational things can go unchecked for a long time, just like the 1999 and 2000 Internet bubble.
7. It's just a matter of time before they finally catch up what the market tells us today: inflation is higher than the rosy picture Mr. Bernanke painted for us. If the Q4 GDP is revised downward, then the growth is weaker than stock market is expected, it will crash the market in a hurry. Goodbye, goldilocks economy.
8. URZ was up 6.3% today and EMU down 0.3%. FRG was down 1.7%. All three have a monster move recently. Since I exchanged from FRG to EMU and URZ recently, the returns are pretty much the same should I not take the move.
9. I added EMU and URZ again early today, as a result, even today's positions are up. These three uranium stocks can double in a year, if uranium price continue to rise.

Market is very strong today

1. Nasdaq was down 0.5% before closed up 0.7%. This is as strong as a market can get. AAPL was the leader, and SIRI and XMSR's merger news helped as well.
2. RIMM was up 2.8 to close at 141.62. I was able to add Sept. ITM puts today. I think the key is gradual and small each time. It's hard to pick the absolute peak, so I'll add when it's up big. Next target is to add put when it's above 145, then 150.
3. Make sure use Sept. or Jan. put. Don't use March put. I was burned recently for my reckless action to buy March put, and only sell a small position, but kept the rest. This is very hard lesson. The one I sold, profit is 30%. The one I kept, it's down.
4. Gold lost the biggest per cent in two weeks. As a result, AEM, GG, SSRI and PAAS was down today.
5. I sold GG today. I sensed it's possible that GG wants to buy again, I guess that's the reason they sold some mines to get cash. That's the reason I sold it today. I remember well last year when they announced to buy GLG, it's down more than 8% that day. I don't want this to happen again.
6. I bought IAG and SLW today to maintain my silver and gold exposures. I like IAG since it's flat recently, while GRS, AUY and AEM all had a decent rally since Jan. 2007. I added SLW since I already have a big SSRI position and a small PAAS position.
7. QID was down again, after up 1.5% early today. I won't worry too much, I have time to wait on this one.
8. I don't have time to wait on my options, these ones that expire in March. Unless RIMM moves down quickly. I also got GDX March call options, down big today.
9. Option lesson: always take profit quickly when you have a decent profit on options. If you wait, time is against you, and it eats the time premium quickly.

Market is closed today

1. I think this week there are several factors to consider:
2. It's the first week after option expired in Feb. Also first week after the big gain from last week.
3. CPI report is Wed. It can add to the momentum to the stock market's 2007 rally, or change it.
4. BOJ can raise rate, which will trigger some Yen carry trade to unwind. But the impact will be gradual and small, but long lasting if Japan's economy keeps its momentum.
5. Then the MA activities this week, can it keep the market going again like last few weeks.
6. Since there are lot of liquidity, it's possible that all financial assets will go higher this year: Gold, Silver, Energy, Stock, Euro, Yen. If that's the case, my QID pick is the lone loser in this environments. Since dollar will be the lone true loser, but stock markets still go higher. I didn't consider this before, so far this year, it's been the case.
7. I think this week gold can move higher and pass $680. So PM is the focus.
8. Uranium is really long term play. Keep EMU and URZ, watch FRG.
9. RIMM may go higher this week, but I think when it gets close to March 3rd, before the option probe and final release of the earnings of the two quarters, I'll be nervous if I'm long. I'll be nervous about my March put as well.

Week Review

Overall market

1. The major indexes all finished the week with gains of more than 1%. The Dow's weekly advance was its biggest in three months, and the index is up 2.4% year-to-date. The Nasdaq is up 3.4% on the year. The S&P 500 has advanced 2.6% so far this year.
2. The market is due for a correction, if not a turn for a bear market. QID is the best way to play this overall market. A 20% decline in Nasdaq in 2007 is very likely. There are two main pillars support this:
3. The bull market started Oct. 2002 has run out of steam, stocks in general are overvalued considering the earning growth.
4. The housing market has yet to bottom, a recession is possible, and a slow growth in economy is very likely, that will cut into corporate earning growth, which determines the stock price.

Precious Metal Stocks

1. GLD closed at 66.36 from 66.12 a week ago. SLV closed at 139.01 from 138.05 a week ago. Gold consolidated its gain and stayed above $660 for a week. I think the next up trend in gold is in place and next target is $700 in March.
2. SSRI closed at 34.91 from 34.47 a week ago. Technically, it absorbed the recent gains and it's a good sign it stays above $34. Same thing for PAAS. It closed at 28.60 from 28.01 a week ago.
3. AEM closed at 39.95 from 40.30 a week ago. The news of taking over CLG knocked 3% off its price. Like this low cost gold producer with main mines in Canada.
4. GG closed at 28.21 from 28.49 a week ago. GG may not offer great returns as junior gold, but it's relatively stable, and if major mutual funds start to add gold shares, only three choices: ABX, NEM and GG. I think GG is the best among these three.

RIMM

1. RIMM closed at 138.82 from 134.21 a week ago. Another tough week for my puts.
2. This is the reason this is a great trade stock. I sold March 145 put position early this week to make a 30% gain. But I didn't sell others, when it's at $132.
3. I should learn lessons from RIMM, when there is a chance, take the profit.
4. It seems every time it looks broken down, it just rolls all the way back.
5. I'll add put again next week when it hits 140 or above.
6. In one year, I think it's a $60-70 stock. Before the end of April, I see it at $100.

Uranium

1. I sold all FRG stocks I bought the last two weeks, for a 15% gain.
2. Based on some analysis on other uranium stocks, I bought EMU and URZ. I'll use these two as pure uranium plays. They are less known than FRG among traders, which make them attractive to me.
3. I will consider FRG if it's around $11 or lower.
4. In the long run, these uranium stocks will do better than most of the PM stocks, which will do better than S&P 500.
5. But there are very risky, can have a 30% correction and still in a great bull market.
6. There are BB uranium stocks, which I could not find charts and facts, so I'll pass them and focus on FRG,EMU and URZ.

Dow hits all time high of 12767

1. Dow hits all time high today, 3rd day in a row.
2. Nasdaq was flat.
3. I was busy today and placed lot of trades, used all the fund from FRG I sold this week, and also used cash to purchase uranium stocks of EMU and URZ.
4. I think long term uranium stocks should do really well, and since FRG did great recently, and also got lot of publicity, I found articles and technical analysis about FRG. Traders love FRG. I decided to sell FRG and used the money to buy two relatively unknown stocks: EMU and URZ.
5. Based on the reserves EMU and URZ have, they are trading at a great discount to FRG, even considering FRG's gold reserves.
6. Upside potential for FRG is, it's a discovery company and can announce new discovery. But from pure uranium perspective, EMU and URZ are better.
7. PM continued to consolidate, I think they're taking a break before the next major up trend. Considering their great run recently, SSRI and PAAS are doing well today.

Dow has second record close in a row

1. Dow got another record, even it's a small gain.
2. Nasdaq was up too, but GOOG and AAPL were both down. QCOM saved the day for Nasdaq. Bulls rotated to other sectors or stocks to keep the bull trend intact. You can tell the market is tired, it's just a matter of time before it gives up.
3. RIMM didn't give me chance to add put, it just dropped in the last hour of trading. My target of $100 before April end is still intact.
4. FRG didn't give me chance to add either. I expect a 5-10% pull back.
5. EMU and URZ were strong. I found two more stocks in nuclear and uranium areas: USEG and USU. Will do research on them this weekend.
6. AEM, SSRI, PAAS, GDX were all up, GG was down a little. I expect them to consolidate and then move up.
7. Didn't add QID, even though it's below $51 now. I'll manage them, with the complacency in the market now, it may take a while before the market finally give up. But 6 months or 9 months from now, I expect QID in 60s.

Another record in Dow

1. Today Dow hits another record. Nasdaq was up 1.2% and QID lost 3%.
2. RIMM was up 2.7% and all my puts were down more than that, even the Jan.2008 put.
3. My head is bloody, but unbowed. I will continue to monitor QID and RIMM. Today's move may due to the OE this Friday, and people use Fed speech to squeeze the shorts.
4. PM and uranium stocks did well today.
5. I sold FRG early today since it's over bought at this moment, a small correction or pull back is very likely, my target is $11. EMU is up 5% and URZ is down 1%. FRG is the top target, it not only has uranium, but also gold, so a little bit safer than EMU and URZ.
6. AEM is the lone downer in my PM holdings today since it is buying CLG. GG, SSRI and PAAS were all in green today and with gold continues its strength, I see them going much higher this Spring. GDX was up a solid 1.6%.
7. Tomorrow market will consolidate today's gain. I won't be surprised it it goes down tomorrow.
8. Will watch FRG and RIMM, to add FRG when it's a good entry; to buy RIMM put when it's a good entry.
9. GRS, which is on my watch list, broke out today, up 6%. Too bad I sold it way too early and don't have any position now. Now I like IAG more than GRS, it's value is better than GRS.

Sold FRG this morning

1. Sold all FRG early this morning to take the profit.
2. It's a great run in a short period of time, have to protect the profit.
3. It may shoot up again, I will not add here. I will add when it pulls back. $11 and $10.5 are not bad target.

MA in the mining industry

1. Today Dow was up 0.8% and was the the leading force for today's market, due to Alcoa take over rumor.
2. Nasdaq was up 0.4%, mainly due to CMCSA and TEVA. GOOG and AAPL, the two leaders of recent Nasdaq's bull run, were flat today. I'll watch these two closely as they may tell us Nasdaq's next move. Based on recent price movement of these two, I think Nasdaq is heading lower. QID was down 0.9%.
3. Alcoa is only a rumor and the real take over in mining was happened in uranium mining. SXR Uranium One Inc. agreed to buy UrAsia Energy Ltd. for $3.1 billion, to form the world's second- largest uranium producer as rising demand for nuclear fuel drives prices to records.
4. As a result, today FRG was up 6% and URZ 3%, only EMU was flat. The MA in uranium will be great news for the junior uranium stocks, like URZ, FRG and EMU.
5. I was fortunate to add FRG two weeks ago and again last week. I added a small position in URZ and EMU yesterday.
6. All PM stocks are doing great, with ^GDM up 1.66%. AEM, GG, SSRI, PAAS showed solid gains today. As I mentioned last Thursday, I think gold is about to break out, there are lot of momentum in PM sector and I won't be surprised to see them go much higher this Spring.
7. Gold stocks should do really well, since silver stocks already got great run since the start of the year, I expect SSRI and PAAS to take a break before next major move. Actually, the last few days, both SSRI and PAAS were not as strong as they were a week ago. My move to reduce PAAS and add FRG seems pay off, at least the last few days.
8. Today RIMM was flat again, in spite of a good news from Piper Jaffray (saying it will beat the target). Volume is light again, this tells me not much buying here. A few months back, news like this will send RIMM 3-5% higher. And this happens two days in a row, yesterday, they released a new product and stock was down. I keep short term target at $120.
9. And $120 is a critical point for RIMM. Since Nov.2006, RIMM was traded between the $120 and $140 channel, if you buy ever time it's close to 120 and sell ever time it's close to 140, you can make lot of money. The theory is, this time it should bounce off $120 again.
10. If it hits $120 soon, and if doesn't bounce, then I think a bear trend is set for RIMM. The first 'if', I'm pretty sure; the second 'if', I'm about 50/50.
11. I'll continue to hold QID as well as PM shares. May consider to take some RIMM put off if it's close to $120. But I'll keep Jan.2008 put in place, just take the March put off.

Nasdaq and the market

1. Nasdaq looks weak and acts like it. Some of the recent Nasdaq leaders such as GOOG and AAPL are all way off their highs. Watching these two can tell us the direction of the market's next move.
2. I mentioned before GOOG's earning release, that its price will move $50 up or down from its $500 level, now looks like it will touch $450. But I didn't follow through and buy straddle since they're expensive at the time. Sometimes, the idea you didn't follow turns out to be winner.
3. PM shares are weak as well, SSRI, PAAS, AEM and GG were all down for the day with ^GDM lost 1%. This is mainly due to the weak oil and strength of the dollar today. I think gold is about the break out and we have lot of momentum left in PM shares.
4. RIMM was down a fraction today.The only significance is today it released its BlackBerry 8800, its thinnest BlackBerry ever with great features, but the stock was down for the day! It tells me people are not buying RIMM now. RIMM is about to lose its momentum and will move lower as a result, the short term target is $120.
5. This weekend I did some research on uranium and found there are two more uranium stocks to trade: URZ and EMU.
6. I like both and built a small position in both today. I'll watch them, right now my main uranium play is FRG, that may change in the future. I think uranium is the commodity to own for the next decade.

Week Review

Overall Market:

1. Market took a break Friday, Nasdaq was down 1.2% for Friday.
2. Judge the overall market, I think it does not have much power left to move higher. There are two possible moves: side way or down.
3. Stocks have gone up for eight straight months, and corporate earnings have risen by double-digits for 17 consecutive quarters.
4. It has now been 938 days since the S&P 500 had a one-day 2% decline. The last one was on May 19, 2003 when the Index fell 2.49% on the day. This is the longest streak since 1928.
5. On the other hand, it has currently been 155 days since the S&P 500 was up 2% or more in a day, the current one was the longest since 1996.
6. So it's more likely to break to the down side.

Precious Metal:

1. Gold broke the $660 that's been the resistance for the last 8 months, if it can hold above the $660 level for a few days, we can talk about $700 in the next few months. This is either a new leg up, or just another failed attempt to break out.
2. BTW, gold's move is without help of oil and dollar during the last 8 months. Oil moved down during the last 8 months and dollar against Euro is almost flat. This show gold's strength, it started to separate itself from oil and other commodities, which is in itself a good news.
3. Last week I continued to change and adjust my holdings and as a result, SSRI, FRG and AEM are up. Cash, GG, PAAS are down.
4. I think it's a consolidation for PM shares now, and if gold breaks out, it will take these stocks with it, regardless if they're overbought or not. Sector trend always overcomes individual stock's trend.

QID and RIMM put.

1. QID closed up to $53.18 from $52.52 a week ago, thanks to a 3.2% gain on Friday, without it, it's another down week. I'll continue to hold and believe it's near the turn for the market.
2. RIMM closed up from $132.82 to 134.21 a week ago, but it's in much worse situation for my put since it touched $138 and $139 during the week. I added a few June ITM put and March ITM put when it's around $138.
3. RIMM looks like in a range between 140 and 120 since Nov. 2006. It's likely to head back to $120 in the next few days. I won't add put again and may take some profit when it hits 120.

Gold is about to break out

1. Since reached $730 last May, gold has been consolidating, with big swings. Now the big triangle formed since last May is narrowing, which indicates another big move is on the way. I think it's on the up side.
2. GLD closed up today to $65.52, as a result, most PM stocks recovered nicely and finished higher. If gold can break $660 and stay there for a few days, then $700 is the next short term target. If oil breaks $60 tomorrow, then it's a plus for gold.
3. AEM and GG are in good shape technically, SSRI hits a new closing high today. FRG and PAAS are overbought, and kind of rollover. But long term, I like these 5 stocks and think they're the stocks to own in PM.
4. As for what happens for silver if the market is in downturn? My research found that silver is more tied to gold than to the S&P 500, even though most of its demands come from industrial applications. Remember, silver is a precious metal, not a base metal. As a matter of fact, silver outperforms gold in PM's bull market. But never say never, if I choose silver stocks, I'll choose the strongest, I like SSRI the best, then PAAS, third one is SLW.
5. RIMM showed its strength again today and I didn't do anything. I am obsessed with RIMM and that's not a good thing. Yes, I have an opinion on RIMM, but I should not bet heavily on RIMM to prove myself, that's recipe for failure.
6. Similarly, my QID position were added because of my overall market analysis.
7. I still think I'm right on RIMM and QID, but don't bet too much on one egg. I won't add to QID and will only add a small RIMM put position if there is an exhausted gap up again.
8. I added a few articles related to uranium and gold and put them under the "Simple Financial Article" section.

Dow touched 12700 for the first time

1. Another strong day for the market, specially Nasdaq. As a result, QID lost 2.3% to close at 51.60.
2. Now I have to research on the overall market trend and wonder if I can add QID when it's below 51, or wait for better entry.
3. PM lost ground and finished lower today. I still like FRG, SSRI, AEM, PAAS , GG and GDX long term. They're all in good shape and are in consolidation after recent gain.
4. Short term, FRG is vulnerable, it formed a shooting star pattern today, I'll use the correction to add, 10 to 10.50 are good area to add. Long term, it's can easily double the price in 1-2 year. My target is 15 to 17 this year should gold and uranium's price keep moving up as predicted.
5. RIMM didn't give me chance to add put, it finished lower to 136.69. I won't add put until it touches 142. And I think there is good chance it won't and go straight down from here.
6. RIMM may have some new product news, these may create a short term rally, but I doubt it.
7. RIMM will release official earning before or on March 3rd, by then it has to report the internal investigation on its option practice and the impact on past earning, it may be the excuse for funds to exit RIMM. We'll see.
8. I think my PM stock bias will work out well long term, but QID may not be a wise choice, at least timing is way off, and may lose money as a result. But now I still don't think the market will move up significantly from here without meaningful correction, I may sell QID when that happens and focus on PM and some speculative put, like RIMM and BIDU.

Complacency

1. Today looks like the market may finally take a break, but no, the bulls pushed the market from red to green again. Investors and traders are too complacent to allow the market to dip into red, even for a day or two. Another sign of topping.
2. RIMM started up, then spent most of the day in red before finished up to 137.6. I didn't add anything there, it may have another exhausted gap up before all are settled, so still wait for the 142-146 area to buy put.
3. Gold, silver and PM shares are doing pretty well today.
4. I'm glad I cut ABX, reduced PAAS and used the funds to buy FRG, SSRI and AEM. At least today it worked out well.
5. Long term, I think SSRI and FRG will do better than GDX, PAAS and AEM will do better than GDX. And GDX will do better than GLD.
6. I'll watch RIMM the next few days, plan is to add June or Sept. puts when it hits between 142 to 146.
7. Actually, it forms a Hanging Man pattern, which is bearish. So if want to be really aggressive, can buy put tomorrow morning, when RIMM rides on CSCO's cocktail, it may go up 1-2 points tomorrow morning.
8. Since I already have RIMM puts and they're under water, I'll be patient and wait for better entry. If RIMM goes down, I have positions already. If it goes up, I can get better entry points for the put.

RIMM is on fire

1. Market is flat after last week's big gain.
2. Gold and PM stocks are higher, I did add FRG again. PM stocks should be in good shape to consolidate before next leg up.
3. RIMM is on fire again, up 4 to 136.81. I used this to add June ITM put and March ITM put. Even though these two positions are ahead since I added when RIMM was traded at 138, my previous RIMM Jan.2008 put and March 2007 put are all under the water.
4. This is really tough, RIMM is really difficult to play. Since it broke 85 to close at 103 on early Oct. 2006, many people played the short and got burned. I waited and waited, still got some losing positions. I'll add put again when it hits 145.
5. Since RIMM didn't break 145 in three early attempts, this time 140-145 is another critical point, it should serve as a place to play put aggressively. I'll do so. If it passes it, then the momentum will carry it for a while. It's critical to have at least a few months in the option and give it room to run its course.
6. Tomorrow will watch RIMM, consider to add put when it is above 142. This is my focus for the next few days. I believe this is the few times in the year that you can make a major bet and make money.
7. My main bet is when RIMM is above 142 but below 146, I'll add June or Sept. ITM puts. Even it's not working out short term, I think it will be profitable when all are settled.
8. This is really risky of course, RIMM may have some "good news" to announce, but I think sell on the news is the game here.

Week Review

Market:

1. Dow got one record after another record this week, Nasdaq closed to 2475 from 2435 a week ago.
2. QID was down to 52.52 from 53.76 a week ago. This is another very tough week for short.
3. RIMM went from 124 to 132, very painful for my put, even for the Jan.2008 put.
4. PM stocks did OK this week to keep my portfolio in balance.
5. AEM, GG and GDX were pretty much flat for the week.
6. SSRI and PAAS went up about 1% and 2% respectively.
7. Nasdaq closed up 6 days in a row, usually that means it will correct itself next week.
8. The only regret I have is, I'm too early adding QID. I added in Nov.06, Dec.06, and Jan.07. But I still believe this is a solid pick for the next 6 to 9 months.
9. Economy, oil supply and middle east conflicts, Iraq war and the burden it puts on the U.S. budget, the trend for U.S. dollar, all these are not positive for the stock market.

Positions and Plan:

1. I made lot of changes this Friday to change my holdings, based on some research I did in gold and silver stocks.
2. Sold PAAS call options and stock to take profit.
3. Sold a small part of GDX.
4. Sold last ABX and ORCL positions.
5. Bought FRG, SSRI and AEM.
6. Bought RIMM March 130 put. I know this is very risky, but I could not help it. It ran up on light volume, and I don't see it holds there.
7. Overall, I increased cash position.
8. Plan is to add RIMM put again should it pass 135. Next target is 140. I think March put maybe too risky, should use Jan.2008 put.
9. I'll add FRG, SSRI and AEM next week when I have chance.
10. Continue to hold QID, but patience will be rewarded by wait for the best entry.

Personal savings fall to 74 year low

1. Personal savings rate for 2006 tumbles to negative 1 percent, the lowest level in 74 years. The savings rate has been negative for an entire year only four times in history -- in 2005 and 2006 and in 1933 and 1932. This shows the economy runs out of steam, since personal spending accounts for two third of U.S. GDP.
2. The Senate voted overwhelmingly Thursday to boost the federal minimum wage by $2.10 to $7.25 an hour over two years. This is the first increase in a decade and way over due. Once it's signed into law later this year, it will put pressure on cost and cut corporate profit in the long run without the increase of productivity.
3. Today market is flat except Dow hits another record. QQQQ actually falls. I think there are many risks that are not reflected in the market: Iraq, Iran and middle east; U.S. deficits continue to grow; corporate profits may fall faster then expected; housing may not hit bottom yet. I'll continue to use QID as the proxy to participate the decline of the market.
4. Today PM did really well, considering oil made a turn from green to red; and PM shares still finished in green. SSRI, PAAS, AEM and GG all show signs of exhaustion and may pull back. Use the pull back (2-5%) to add position again. They are good for long term.
5. RIMM closed down less than 1, and again in light volume. I'm glad I have Jan. 2008 put. I can wait.
6. Tomorrow is the last day with lot of data coming in, let's see how market react to the news.
7. China's shares started to fall, led by BIDU and PGJ. 130% return last year in China's Shanghai index maybe too much. They may fall further in the next 6 months to 1 year.