Tuesday, February 27, 2007

Wow

Today Dow down 416 to 12216, Nasdaq drop 97 to 2407, S&P 500 down 50 to 1399. The biggest drop since 9/11/2001. This is the day you don't want to miss, only a few days a year you can see action like this. Wow!
  1. When I saw the news Chinese market crashed 9% this morning, I acted quickly and decisively, liquidated almost all the positions except the RIMM puts and QID. In a day like this, there is no place to hide, even the defensive sectors like PM.
  2. I remembered well, last May when market had a correction, the precious metal index ^HUI dropped more than the market, I was determined not let this happen to me again.
  3. Yes, I sold GDX early this morning at 40.7, it's not the high of the day, but higher than the close of 39.35.
  4. Yes, I sold SSRI, AEM, IAG(at a loss, actually), SLW(at a loss), PAAS. All were not at high of the day, but none were at the low of the day either. Not bad. Overall, my PM shares were profitable.
  5. Yes, I sold uranium stocks as well. URZ I sold at 4.86 and 5.05, EMU at 11.86 and 11.38. URZ's high for the day was 5.29 and low 4.6, it closed at 4.9. EMU's high today was 12.15, low 10.30, closed at 11.20. It's a great run for uranium stocks.
  6. FRG was down more than 25% (at 10) today before closed at 11.98, down 10%. So today, if you traded at that 10-15 minutes window when it's around 10, you'd make 20% in one day! When I saw FRG at 10, I immediately logged in, but since the Yahoo quote has 20 minutes delay, I didn't buy FRG because it already climbed out of the hole.
  7. Today my QID shot up almost 10% to 55.46.
  8. My RIMM puts shot up as well, RIMM was down 8 to 138. Yesterday's RIMM put purchases looks like a genius today.
  9. My QQQQ puts jumped a bug percentage today! I thought it was a loss.
  10. I added QQQQ June and Sept. puts today, I added early, so both of them were up big today as a result.
  11. I still have a small GDX, EMU and URZ positions. May sell them in a bounce.

What's next:

  1. I think the correction is not over. I won't be surprised if it goes down another 5-15% in a few months. So I'll buy ultra shorts EFTs(QID,SDS, DXD and MZZ) or put options on any big rally during this correction.
  2. I won't be surprised if this is the start of a new bear market for 2007.
  3. The only sectors I like are PM, uranium, oil driller companies. But I won't add them now, I expect to get them at a much lower price.
  4. The stocks on my wish lists are SSRI, PAAS, SLW, FRG, URZ, EMU, AEM, IAG, KGC, GRS, AUY, NG, EGO. Of course, GDX, GLD and SLV are core positions to consider. OIH is another one I'll watch. I'm looking for a 10% hair cuts on these stocks. For GLD, I think $600-620 are the areas I'll consider to buy.
  5. China ETFs like FXI and PGJ will be attractive to me if they have another 10-20% hair cut.
  6. RIMM is another stock to watch, it delays the release again, from Friday to next Monday. I don't see it can magically pull another trick to escape the down fall this time, but you never know. That's why I didn't add RIMM put today, instead I used QQQQ put. It's always risky if you are obsessed with one stock.

There is always another day, another chance in the market. That's what's great about the market, as long as you have money left, you can make a come back!

No one can predict future, but base on the information you have, do the best you can. Make the right decision, and act quickly and decisively. I tried my best today, it may not be the right decision, but at least today, it is right.

0 comments: