Monday, February 26, 2007

RIMM upgraded?

Uranium and PM stocks:

  1. Today I have a decent day in all my positions, except RIMM.
  2. AEM, GDX, QID,PAAS were up, SSRI, SLW and IAG were down a fraction. Nothing to concern about.
  3. URZ continued its unbelievable movement, up 9.4% today. I'm thinking to trim the positions. EMU was flat. I think there is a possibility that URZ will be bought; otherwise, it's really hard to explain its 60% gain in two weeks. I'll keep watching. It's a very volatile stock: last year, it moved from 1.5 in Oct. to 4.5 in Dec., that's 300% in two months, then it's down to 3 in Jan. Now it's 5.7.
  4. Overall market, I think there is a chance it entered a correction.

RIMM was up 6.77 to 146.77:

  1. RIMM is the pain today, an analyst from RBC upgraded it, moved target from 145 to 180. For them, it's just a number, like in 2000, they can call QCOM $1000 stock and AMZN $600, there is no justification for these kind of analysis. When do you hear a downgrade from an analyst because it's near their target price? The just keep moving up. And when company reports bad news and shares down 20-30%, they downgrade the stock.
  2. There are several reasons this upgrade is very important and very timely.
  3. RIMM will release its 2006 official earning this Friday, and release its option probe result. It needs support, and the analyst gave it to them.
  4. RIMM failed to break 140 levels three times, lot of shorts sit on 140, this upgrade forced weak shorts to cover.
  5. After the official release, RIMM executives can sell their locked shares, millions of shares. They need a better price to sell, and this analyst provided the support.
  6. RIMM was up 4 in pre-market with 1 million shares traded; then rest of the day, it was up 2.8 with 11 million shares traded. It's easy to move up a stock in pre-market than in regular hours.
  7. So, there you have it, anyway you look at this, it's very suspicious.
  8. My march puts are in very bad shape, I should know better and stick to my leaps. I didn't cover since it's not worth much now. If I keep them, there is a decent chance RIMM will crash and I get my money back.
  9. I added March in the money (ITM) puts today, I think there is great chance it will be very profitable.
  10. A few days back, I bought March puts when RIMM was at 138, and only sold a small positions when it hits 132. But kept the rest, this is a very costly mistake.
  11. So this time, I will take profit from my March puts if RIMM pulls back.
  12. And I will add another small positions on March ITM puts if it keep moving up tomorrow, I'll use 150 as a target.
  13. Of course, the wise move is to add Sept. puts and Jan.08 puts. So maybe I'll consider both.
  14. Sept. put is a great choice here, iPhone will be in market for 3 months by then, and summer usually is bad time for stocks. So let's focus on Sept. puts, and only use ITM for March.
  15. Again, the key is small and gradual, don't move all in. It's not time to be hero, but to be cautious.

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