Uranium and PM stocks:
- Today I have a decent day in all my positions, except RIMM.
- AEM, GDX, QID,PAAS were up, SSRI, SLW and IAG were down a fraction. Nothing to concern about.
- URZ continued its unbelievable movement, up 9.4% today. I'm thinking to trim the positions. EMU was flat. I think there is a possibility that URZ will be bought; otherwise, it's really hard to explain its 60% gain in two weeks. I'll keep watching. It's a very volatile stock: last year, it moved from 1.5 in Oct. to 4.5 in Dec., that's 300% in two months, then it's down to 3 in Jan. Now it's 5.7.
- Overall market, I think there is a chance it entered a correction.
RIMM was up 6.77 to 146.77:
- RIMM is the pain today, an analyst from RBC upgraded it, moved target from 145 to 180. For them, it's just a number, like in 2000, they can call QCOM $1000 stock and AMZN $600, there is no justification for these kind of analysis. When do you hear a downgrade from an analyst because it's near their target price? The just keep moving up. And when company reports bad news and shares down 20-30%, they downgrade the stock.
- There are several reasons this upgrade is very important and very timely.
- RIMM will release its 2006 official earning this Friday, and release its option probe result. It needs support, and the analyst gave it to them.
- RIMM failed to break 140 levels three times, lot of shorts sit on 140, this upgrade forced weak shorts to cover.
- After the official release, RIMM executives can sell their locked shares, millions of shares. They need a better price to sell, and this analyst provided the support.
- RIMM was up 4 in pre-market with 1 million shares traded; then rest of the day, it was up 2.8 with 11 million shares traded. It's easy to move up a stock in pre-market than in regular hours.
- So, there you have it, anyway you look at this, it's very suspicious.
- My march puts are in very bad shape, I should know better and stick to my leaps. I didn't cover since it's not worth much now. If I keep them, there is a decent chance RIMM will crash and I get my money back.
- I added March in the money (ITM) puts today, I think there is great chance it will be very profitable.
- A few days back, I bought March puts when RIMM was at 138, and only sold a small positions when it hits 132. But kept the rest, this is a very costly mistake.
- So this time, I will take profit from my March puts if RIMM pulls back.
- And I will add another small positions on March ITM puts if it keep moving up tomorrow, I'll use 150 as a target.
- Of course, the wise move is to add Sept. puts and Jan.08 puts. So maybe I'll consider both.
- Sept. put is a great choice here, iPhone will be in market for 3 months by then, and summer usually is bad time for stocks. So let's focus on Sept. puts, and only use ITM for March.
- Again, the key is small and gradual, don't move all in. It's not time to be hero, but to be cautious.
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