In front of FED, GDP

We'll have FED decision today, and then GDP number tomorrow. On top of a 11% gain yesterday.

1. There is a risk we'll sell off, either today or tomorrow.
2. There is also a possibility we'll have a back to back strong rally.
3. I noticed commodity related issues, MOS, KOL, GDX, OIH, MOO, all are far stronger than general market.
4. Therefore, I sold SSO and UWM for small profit.
5. I added another set of KOL today, on top of what I added yesterday.
6. Now I raised cash. And increased exposure to KOL, which I think will have far better gain ahead than rest of the market, if we have a market recovery.
7. I think it's a good decision.

Interesting

Dow Jones history, top gainers:
1. March 15, 1933 … 15.34%

2. Oct. 6, 1931 ….. 14.87%

3. Oct. 30, 1929 …. 12.34%

4. Sept. 21, 1932 … 11.36%

5. Oct. 13, 2008 …. 11.08%

6. Oct. 28, 2008 …. 10.88%

7. Oct. 21, 1987 …. 10.15%

8. Aug. 3, 1932 …. 9.52%

9. Feb. 11, 1932 …. 9.47%

10.Nov. 14, 1929 …. 9.36%

11.Dec. 18, 1931 …. 9.35%

A little room

After a melt up in the market, the 11% surge, I got a little relief for my beaten down positions.

1. On Oct.14th morning, all my new positions (MOS, MOO, SSO, QLD, KOL) are ahead. Now, only SSO and UWM are ahead.
2. MOS, MOO,QLD and KOL are way down. And this is after a 11% surge in market. Both QLD and SSO are up over 20%.
3. Now I have a little room. I hope to sell into strength. First to go are the 2x ETFs.
   

That was a panic selling at the close

No one wants to hold overnight. This is different than before. I learned new things every day.

I think tomorrow, we'll likely to have a rally, then sell off, then rally again. Maybe the opposite of today's action. That's my take.

I was ready to sell at the high today, got greedy, since my latest shares were barely break even at the high (others were way undeer the water). Then, it's a 5% drop to the close, from the high. I were about to sell my latest SSO at the high. My mistake.

It's not a shame you lost money; but it's a shame that you knew it, but hope for different result. Just do what's in your heart, don't over-analyze and then kick myself again. Do I ever learn?

Moment of truth

Next week, I'll find out what's in this market: a crash or a range bound swings. Also, I'll find out myself, do I have the ability to adjust and do the best I can in the market. It's the moment of truth.

1. Don't believe in the Fed's ability to cure or mitigate the risk in the economy and market.
2. Don't believe in the bulls. They are wrong all the way.
3. Don't believe in the bears. They are right this time, by luck.
4. The best trader, can swing with the majority of the market. Or, just catch a ride, no matter it's a bull market, bear market.
5. Therefore, I need to exam my positions and adjust accordingly.
6. Be safe is not a bad idea, if I have no idea what's out there in the market.
7. Be brave is not a bad idea, if I am on the right side of the trade.
8. Have to consider, there is a chance, we'll have a real crash, another 20% on top of what we had already, 40% off high.
9. Have to consider, there is a chance, for a strong bounce that will hurt bears for a few months.
10. My take, we'll have not see the bottom. I was wrong to think it's the bottom or near it. Market actions last week proved this.
11. I feel like we may have another panic selling, a real one, like the one on Oct.10th. 10% or more to the down side.
12. If that doesn't happen, since people are on the edge, a good event can trigger a massive rally, since if they can't take it down, they will take it up. This is the market mentality right now.
13. You have to be right, and the action is fast and strong, either direction.

Bought more

With market closed to new low, I bought SSO and KOL today. I don't know if this is the bottom, or the start of another leg down. I think it's the bottom. Tested twice, see if it holds.

Ahead of the curve

It's an understatement to say this market is crazy, way out of chart, we may only experience it once in a life time. Monday the market was up 11%, biggest gain in 80 years? Then yesterday went from up 4% to down 1%. Today, down 9%! Very fast, every move. If you're caught in the wrong position, you're dead!

Today is the first day I made a good decision in the last few days. Yes, my switch from UNG to SSO was good, but I almost lost all the gain from it.

1. Today I sold my SSO for a small profit, if I were flexible enough (someone commented that I was not flexible enough), I would sell it yesterday open at a great profit. But still, if I still hold SSO, it's 10% below the price I sold it.
2. In this market, a movement that usually takes weeks or months to develop, now takes one day, sometimes, a few hour.
3. I have to adjust to this new environment. Be very nimble.
4. Buy when it's very risky and everyone think it's the end of the world, and sell when everyone think we're finally coming back to normal. It's that hard.
5. Don't use options, even double ETFs are riskier than just SPY, since if you're wrong, you'll lost fast.
6. Need to against the mass, if people think it's the bottom, it's not.
7. Can we have a strong rally in Friday? Head into weekend? If most people think we'll sell off into weekend, probably not.
8. I put most in MOS, MOO and KOL. If market is to rally, I have enough to ride. On the other hand, raise cash, and have to buy the crash. We're near another dive, I think.
9. Ryan, thanks for the comment. It's good to hear from you. Most people lost more in this market. We have to be careful, learn quickly in this new fast change environment. Good luck to you.
10. I'll try to swing trade this market using the cash I sold from SSO, keep rest for the long term.

You have to know, when the tide turns, you need to be ahead of the curve. And it's very fast in this market for it to turn.

Next

Market crashed. Dow is down 18% last week, Nasdaq about 15%. On Friday, Dow's intraday swing is over 1000 points! Vix hit new record in the 70s and closed at new records. Now Dow is down 42% from 2007 peak, S&P500 is down over 40% as well.

1. I sold UNG Friday, and moved most to SSO and raised cash a little. I think SSO will perform better than UNG if market rallies.
2. Now I long MOS, SSO,KOL,MOO,QLD and MF. IF the market continues to fall, I will add long positions, most likely SSO and QLD.
3. I sold MS and UYG, about 50% and 30% more than their lows on Friday. Now, if something comes out G7, they can easily go up 50% and 30% in one day. MS is very risky at this point, can go to 20 or down to 5, depends where the Fed will place the rescue tag.
4. Just two weeks ago, MOS is above 80 and now is at 36, and its forward PE is about 2.9. Even if they miss, I think PE at 5 or 6 is not too bad. I can see it double within a year, if not more.
5. The reason we sold off all over sectors, is because funds are liquidating their positions, this explains gold's sell off on Friday as well.
6. After dust is settled, this is the great place to be in the market, a 10-15% rally is likely.
7. I will be brave, calm and cool in the future, in trading and in life. This is not a time to panic, this is a time to perform and do the right thing!

Lost

I have to admit, I am lost. Market crashed again today, down 7% and Dow had 6th triple digit down days in a row! All the indicators are out of charts now. VIX hit yet another record, at 63!

1. This is not a yearly event or decade event, this is once a life time event!
2. We have to go back to 1970s and 1929 to find similar case in the stock market. This is even worse than 1987, which was down 26% in one day, but recovered quickly.
3. I finally gave up MS and UYG. After I sold, MS was down another 15% and UYG another 15%!
4. And I was afraid of a strong rally to come, so I switched most of the money to MOS.MOO and KOL. I feel safe on these three, knowing they're worth something. MS, and UYG, I am not sure, my speculation on WM, cost me 100% loss! After I bought these three, they were down about 5-8%!
   
5. Today we have 20% swing in many stocks!
6. This is the great crash I was talking about a few days back!
7. I am so sorry that I screwed up my account again!I am shameful!!!!
8. But I will work hard to make me a better person, in life, in work and in trading.A year ago, I was shorting this market like crazy, and I was burned. Now I am long this market, since I think Fed is always behind the market, but this time, it didn't matter! Shorts finally have their day, and I was on the wrong side again.
   
9. Millions people are losing money and houses at this moment! This is life!
   
10. The government, congress, when they had chances to act quickly, they wanted to see market reaction, now they got it! But this is not an excuse! I take full responsibility of my mistakes! I made mistakes in the last few days, and it cost me dearly!
    
11. I will and have to work additional years to just get back to even the losses. I was careless and took a calculated risk, betting a bounce on a way oversold market, and I was burned by that! This is a once a life time event!
    
12. Just 4 days ago, I was far better than the S&P 500, now, I almost want to kill myself!
13. I will end the note on 13. Since it's such a luck number! I will pick myself up and move on!
    

It's the struggle

I am too early this time. But it's good to switch from commodity related stocks to financials. Now I think the bottom, at least a near term bottom is in. How long will it last, I don't know. Considering following:

1. Dow was down 800 points, and closed down "only" 370.
2. VIX was 58 before closed at 52, a new all time high.
3. New lows vs new highs is out of the chart.
4. Everything was sold today, tech, energy, financials, every sectors.

I added QLD and a little KOL today. I again hope for a bounce. But with market in uncharted environment, we may have another sell off. But now, again, I think it's great to be in financials, since the 700B rescue plan will be for financials.

I am under water for the year, yes, better than Dow, Nasdaq or S&P500, but that's not excuse for losing money. Early this year, I was way ahead and gaining a good percentage! Now I am still ahead than general market, but two more days like this, I will fall behind the market. It's the struggle!

I learned a lot, the most important lessons:

1. Take profit. I had big profit in several stocks(ETFs) that I sold for a loss later on.
2. Wait long enough to enter a position, specially in a bear market.

This is it!

With VIX over 40 again (Monday and Thursday) and we're back to the low of the week, I think this is it!

1. We're going to bounce back and have a very strong rally.
2. Or, we're going to crash like 10% or more, like the 1987 black Monday.
3. I think we're going to have a rally. That's my judgement, and I put my money in financial, and today added MOS and UYG.
4. I sold TSO and WNR yesterday and switched to UYG. Just one day, I lost about 2-3% in UYG (comparing to the price I bought UYG yesterday), and I actually saved myself about 9%. Since both TSO and WNR lost 11% today!
5. I also added KOL and CNX too early in the week. Since both are down like 10% today.
6. Considering everything is sold in market, including gold, I think we're nearing a strong rally. Looks like people are exiting everything and hold on to cash. Either this is a great opportunity, or this is the great warning of a great crash!
7. MS and UYG are showing strength today, down 4% and 7% respectively. Usually, they'd double or triple the precentage of down side of the market.
8. If the bill is passed, the one sector that benefits the most is financial. Therefore UYG is my choice.
9. This is it. We either will have a strong rally or a great crash.
10. If we have a small rally, then we may have a sustained rally. But I think most people will use rally to sell their positions, and a strong rally like Friday and then Monday is the most likely outcome.
11. I hope I am right.