It's an understatement to say this market is crazy, way out of chart, we may only experience it once in a life time. Monday the market was up 11%, biggest gain in 80 years? Then yesterday went from up 4% to down 1%. Today, down 9%! Very fast, every move. If you're caught in the wrong position, you're dead!
Today is the first day I made a good decision in the last few days. Yes, my switch from UNG to SSO was good, but I almost lost all the gain from it.
- Today I sold my SSO for a small profit, if I were flexible enough (someone commented that I was not flexible enough), I would sell it yesterday open at a great profit. But still, if I still hold SSO, it's 10% below the price I sold it.
- In this market, a movement that usually takes weeks or months to develop, now takes one day, sometimes, a few hour.
- I have to adjust to this new environment. Be very nimble.
- Buy when it's very risky and everyone think it's the end of the world, and sell when everyone think we're finally coming back to normal. It's that hard.
- Don't use options, even double ETFs are riskier than just SPY, since if you're wrong, you'll lost fast.
- Need to against the mass, if people think it's the bottom, it's not.
- Can we have a strong rally in Friday? Head into weekend? If most people think we'll sell off into weekend, probably not.
- I put most in MOS, MOO and KOL. If market is to rally, I have enough to ride. On the other hand, raise cash, and have to buy the crash. We're near another dive, I think.
- Ryan, thanks for the comment. It's good to hear from you. Most people lost more in this market. We have to be careful, learn quickly in this new fast change environment. Good luck to you.
- I'll try to swing trade this market using the cash I sold from SSO, keep rest for the long term.
You have to know, when the tide turns, you need to be ahead of the curve. And it's very fast in this market for it to turn.
3 comments:
Hey remember to have good breaks, a.k.a. trailing stops
BTW I don't see a bottom any time soon, just crazy ups and down until the gov and the let this market alone . . .
I thought I bought QLD MOS FCX BG X at good bargain but they dropped so fast. It's just unbelievable. MOS FCX BG X are still good companies with extremely low PE, so I just hang on. Traders just short anything considered 'commodities' since they can no longer short financials.
When I looked at stock prices, most of them are between 50-90% off high. Any idea which ones are punished unfairly and could potentially rebound the quickest?
-ryan-
We have value stocks all over the place, MOS and POT, MOO; OIH, natural gas companies, like APA, CHK. You can find a lot.
Based on what I learned, CHK and MOS maybe are oversold, first one due to CEO's forced sale (like 5% in 3 days to meet margin call), and MOS was a hedge funds favorite, and they sold it hard to raise cash. Over long term I like MOS better, becasue it's cash position, and CHK has lot of debts, and if the credit situation is not improved, it will be an issue for CHK.
Post a Comment