Sunday, October 12, 2008

Next

Market crashed. Dow is down 18% last week, Nasdaq about 15%. On Friday, Dow's intraday swing is over 1000 points! Vix hit new record in the 70s and closed at new records. Now Dow is down 42% from 2007 peak, S&P500 is down over 40% as well.

  1. I sold UNG Friday, and moved most to SSO and raised cash a little. I think SSO will perform better than UNG if market rallies.
  2. Now I long MOS, SSO,KOL,MOO,QLD and MF. IF the market continues to fall, I will add long positions, most likely SSO and QLD.
  3. I sold MS and UYG, about 50% and 30% more than their lows on Friday. Now, if something comes out G7, they can easily go up 50% and 30% in one day. MS is very risky at this point, can go to 20 or down to 5, depends where the Fed will place the rescue tag.
  4. Just two weeks ago, MOS is above 80 and now is at 36, and its forward PE is about 2.9. Even if they miss, I think PE at 5 or 6 is not too bad. I can see it double within a year, if not more.
  5. The reason we sold off all over sectors, is because funds are liquidating their positions, this explains gold's sell off on Friday as well.
  6. After dust is settled, this is the great place to be in the market, a 10-15% rally is likely.
  7. I will be brave, calm and cool in the future, in trading and in life. This is not a time to panic, this is a time to perform and do the right thing!

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Wow, you still have the nerve to add SSO on Friday, very cool! I was afraid. Many bloggers I followed said "wait and cash is king!"

Anonymous said...

Oct 15th, another crash. I think Dow is looking for a double bottom at 8000, so tomorrow it may go all the way down to 8000 before rebounding.

Same with you. Lost all my profit in the past 2-3 weeks. I've been waiting for rebound, but got burned almost every day. Never see market like this before.

-ryan-