Wow, 1 Trillion loss in market

Thanks to our congress, we had more than 1 trillion loss in the market today. 133 GOP voted against it, 65 GOP voted for it. 140 DEM voted for it and 95 DEM voted against it.

I overestimated the intelligence of our Congress. Our politicians said they wanted others to vote yes to pass the bill, just not themselves! Is this how they get elected in the first place? They don't care if you lost money in your 401K, in your investments! They only care about their election and most people, who hate wall street in nature, will find out what they had lost today! I hope these who wrote to their congressman and congresswoman to vote against the bill, will be happy with their investment in the stock market today!

People are misled by media and most people don't know how financial market works. In this sense, we the people, deserve what we got today: selfish lawmakers, and selfish public. Now let's suffer together!

Historic week=Bottom out?

This is a historic week, with Fed bailed out AIG and then the whole financial system. Dow has two of the largest falls (504 and 450 points) in the last 6 years and two of the best gains (410 and 368), all in one week!

1. I did OK, and didn't make any serious mistakes. TSO and WNR kept most of their value for the week, and I sold most WNR today to switch to financials.
2. I added some MS and XLF yesterday, which are great winners.
3. Today I added more MS,WM and XLF. I was lucky, didn't add at the open and waited for the market to fade before I jumped in.
4. In the next few weeks, unless something big happens(which is the case every day this week!), with VIX's 42 mark yesterday, I expect the general market to have a decent rally, like 5% or more. But the last two days already jumped 7%!
5. Several things are on bull's side: stocks are oversold in the weekly chart and made a V shape bottom; short selling ban in financials;government bail out eases the credit stress.
6. I chose MS, since they were in the 40s just last week, and now at 27, and they had a great quarter, the 52 week high is 69. Since BSC and LEH are gone and MER is bought, I expect MS to benefit from this and gain more market shares, by comparison, GS is at 130, high was 250.
7. WM is another story. It's up for sales, and even with last two days sharp rally, it's 88% off the high. If BAC could pay MER 70% premium in the dark market 5 days ago, I expect WM can get some premium (even though it's a fire sale, to be sure) from C or JPM or someone else.
8. These strong companies, like BAC, in a few years, will make huge profit because of the assets they got at fire sale price now.
9. Long term, I expect the US government's move will weaken the dollar, and strengthen commodities in general, so keep and eye on gold, oil, natural gas, Ag, etc and add on weakness.

What's next:

1. Because we had an extreme week in market action and market rallied in the last one and half days, I think we have a short term bottom, to say the least. We'll have a decent rally when all are said and done.
2. The facts that CNN and CNBC, local news are broadcasting news like "Are your money safe?", including Barrons, that tells me, it's precisely the market bottom, when public are panic. Let's see if this indicator holds true this time.

Add some financials

Last few days, lot of things happened in the market! VIX hit 42 today before closed down at 33.

1. I sold some WNR and bought some XLF close to the low of the day.
2. I bought some MS, just bet they'd survive, and when it dived to 11.7, I almost wanted to take the money back. When it quickly bounced, I added a little more. Then, when the news came out, it's a 4% jump in general market and MS finished in green! Now, I wish I would be a little brave and buy more. But, what do I know, I could get killed like LEH holder. It's purely speculative play, small is good!
3. And looks like SEC will ban short sellers for some time, maybe until election? I think that's good for the market, since we're on the verge of total collapse. But I prefer "up tick" rule over banning short selling, and naked short should be banned. But short should be legal and shorts keep companies honest!
4. On the other hand, last time I checked, WNR has 31% short and TSO has 20%. These heavily shorted stocks should do well in this environment. Since TSO and WNR are more than 70% off high, they may have a strong bounce.
5. I hope this rally will last, but be careful out there and don't be greedy.

TSO, WNR and UNG, refiners

1. Since I sold UYG and switched to UNG and TSO, UYG was up a little, even considering recent sell off in financials. We had FNM and FRE bail out and now it's LEH's turn. UNG was down, even after Gustav. And TSO was higher than the price I paid. Overall, it's a wrong move! I should wait more and should not bet too heavy on UNG.
2. I also switched from AGU and MOS to TSO. This is a good move, since AGU and MOS got crashed recently, even with yesterday's 7% jump.
3. And I sold APC and replaced it with TSO and WNR yesterday.
4. The more research I did,the more I am convinced that, for whatever reason, many players want to push oil and natural gas price down. Therefore, it explained why oil and NG got crashed after hurricane Gustav, and now with Ike just made landfall, it's very possible oil and NG will be sold off again at special Sunday session to manipulate the price.
5. I chose TSO and WNR, because both of them don't have refineries in gulf coast; they're both more than 70% off high; crack spread is improving; we have a gasoline shortage, the lowest inventory since 2000. Even with these bullish factors, I am not sure what happens next week, big players can sell off gasoline too to push price down.
6. But I think the margin of safety in TSO and WNR is higher than APC, AGU, UNG and USO. But they're risky too, since it's a company, anything can happen. ETF is relatively safe.
7. UNG is better than USO, in my opinion. We have low inventory as well, and a cold winter, we're off to a race. NG at $7 is a strong floor, back to $10 in the winter is reasonable. But another sell off after hurricane Ike to push it to $6 is also possible.

About TSO and WNR and other refiners:

1. TSO was off 71% off recent high and WNR 78% off its recent high, I think both highs were set late last year.
2. TSO has about 658,000 bpd capability, market cap is 2.6B.
3. WNR has 235,000 bpd capability, market cap is 825M.
4. In comparison, VLO has 3.1M bpd capability, market cap is 18.7B. VLO has three refineries shut down during Ike landfall.
5. FTO has 162,000 bpd capability and market cap is 2.4B.
6. I think VLO and FTO have better earnings, but still, I think TSO and WNR offer the best value if crack spread continues to improve, they shall do better than VLO and FTO.