TSO, WNR and UNG, refiners

1. Since I sold UYG and switched to UNG and TSO, UYG was up a little, even considering recent sell off in financials. We had FNM and FRE bail out and now it's LEH's turn. UNG was down, even after Gustav. And TSO was higher than the price I paid. Overall, it's a wrong move! I should wait more and should not bet too heavy on UNG.
2. I also switched from AGU and MOS to TSO. This is a good move, since AGU and MOS got crashed recently, even with yesterday's 7% jump.
3. And I sold APC and replaced it with TSO and WNR yesterday.
4. The more research I did,the more I am convinced that, for whatever reason, many players want to push oil and natural gas price down. Therefore, it explained why oil and NG got crashed after hurricane Gustav, and now with Ike just made landfall, it's very possible oil and NG will be sold off again at special Sunday session to manipulate the price.
5. I chose TSO and WNR, because both of them don't have refineries in gulf coast; they're both more than 70% off high; crack spread is improving; we have a gasoline shortage, the lowest inventory since 2000. Even with these bullish factors, I am not sure what happens next week, big players can sell off gasoline too to push price down.
6. But I think the margin of safety in TSO and WNR is higher than APC, AGU, UNG and USO. But they're risky too, since it's a company, anything can happen. ETF is relatively safe.
7. UNG is better than USO, in my opinion. We have low inventory as well, and a cold winter, we're off to a race. NG at $7 is a strong floor, back to $10 in the winter is reasonable. But another sell off after hurricane Ike to push it to $6 is also possible.

About TSO and WNR and other refiners:

1. TSO was off 71% off recent high and WNR 78% off its recent high, I think both highs were set late last year.
2. TSO has about 658,000 bpd capability, market cap is 2.6B.
3. WNR has 235,000 bpd capability, market cap is 825M.
4. In comparison, VLO has 3.1M bpd capability, market cap is 18.7B. VLO has three refineries shut down during Ike landfall.
5. FTO has 162,000 bpd capability and market cap is 2.4B.
6. I think VLO and FTO have better earnings, but still, I think TSO and WNR offer the best value if crack spread continues to improve, they shall do better than VLO and FTO.