UNG and TSO

I sold MOS and AGU at a loss and bought TSO and UNG. This is really a hurricane play and bottom fishing as well.

Both TSO and UNG are way off high (72% and 42%) respectively. If gulf oil and natural gas productions are shut down ahead of hurricane, and refineries near the coast are shut down ahead of hurricane, these two will benefit from the supply cut.

1. TSO doesn't have refineries in gulf coast, therefore should benefit more if gas price spikes. Also, the crack spread seems bottomed, so TSO should do well in the near term, like a few months.
2. UNG has the similar spike pattern during the 2005 hurricane season.
3. However, this week, UNG and TSO actually went down yesterday and pretty much flat today, ahead of hurricane Gustav. This speaks loud and clear of the demand destruction, that is, people don't care and keep pushing oil and NG down.
4. Or, a few big players tried to keep the price down, for whatever (political?)reason. This is a mystery to me. Maybe smart money already knows something we don't know.
5. If Gustav is a no event, I can see UNG to 34 and TSO back to 15. I am nervous to say the least. Have to cut losses at some point. And I won't hold these for too long. Learned lessons in UYG.
6. Speaking of UYG, after I sold, it spiked about 8% and the UNG I bought was down about 6%. Talking about bad timing and bad skill. But I still think UNG is better holding now than UYG, time will tell.
7. My mistake in UYG, I could sell at 24, twice, and I didn't and took a loss and switched to UNG, one day early. If I switched yesterday, I am a genius.
8. It's wrong and not profitable to time and bet on certain event, it's better to use charts and choose none event time to trade on fundamentals or technicals. Be sure to stick to this rule in the future.