Trim positions

Today I sold GLD, DGP,DBP at small losses. I should do this yesterday, then some of them were pretty much even. Main positions are DBA,DAG and GDX. Even though long term I love gold, but short term, I'm not sure. So I raised cash today.

If indeed there is a deep correction, I will add more.

Tough decision

Seems like both precious metals and agriculture ETFs are under pressure, looks like the Fed decision will trigger another round of selloff. It's a tough decision to keep big position in DBA and DBP, I may need to trim them at losses before the Fed's meeting.
On the other hand, seems like lot of people advise to sell PM and DBA, which in itself is a bullish sign for PM and DBA.
Long term trend, I think DBA and gold will outperform market, short term another 5-10% correction is likely. My pick in GDX was bad, my original thinking is right, pure gold and silver will outperform GDX.
Last few days, gold is very weak, ever small gain were sold off at the end of the day or after hour.
Always keep enough cash.

Rice Panic

I read an article about rice panic, and I checked stocks like MOS and POT, and the new IPO in IPI next week, looks like we'll have a food crisis this year, and DBA is the way to safely invest. So yesterday I added DBA and DAG(double ETN on DBA).

1. People buy POT and MOS, due to the fact they think there is a food shortage in the world, and it could not be solved anytime soon.
2. Similarly, when gold started to turn in 2001, gold stocks went up more than gold. Now I think the food price, which started to turn in 2006, still have a long way to go. It's unlikely the bull in food will end anytime soon.
3. There will have corrections along the way, but it's worth the patience.
4. I think POT and MOS ran up too fast recently, due to the fact that China agreed to triple the price for potash, the previous hike is 15 months ago.
5. So if you're aggressive, buy POT and MOS on dip, otherwise, you can safely buy DBA and DAG.
6. Agriculture is the new game, and the food inflation is the hardest to correct, it's still in early stage.

Gold may head higher

After watching gold and other commodities recently, today I added GDX, DBA, DBP and a speculative play in PAL. I also added YHOO, think the deal may near and it's easily a $35-$40 stock if MSFT is determined to have it.

1. Fundamentally, gold and commodities are very good long term, thanks to inflation and the weakened U.S. dollar. It's a long term trend, may still have a few years, even a decade left, before it runs out of gas.
2. Technically, two things happened in gold, today is the first time GLD's MACD clearly turned to positive, signal that the correction may be over; another, this is the first time GDX clearly outperform GLD recently, indicates people think the gold companies will do far better than gold, that's a leading indicator that gold will go higher.
3. And, since the March sell off in gold, today is first time gold and general market are both up big. So I think the funds allocated for PM are back.
4. I added DBA, that's a play on food crisis. I think the run in DBA is not over.
5. I added DBP. So I cover both gold and silver.
6. PAL is a palladium play. Palladium is in the PGM group with platinum, has unique properties, over half of palladium is used in catalytic converters in all the new cars today to reduce pollution. PAL is one of two palladium play in U.S., another being SWC. I think it's like URZ that I played last year, can easily doubled or tripled within a year, and as easily halved in a year. But I think the odds is going higher, since it's more rare than gold and it has great industry application, palladium shall be worth more than gold, eventually.
7. I think MSFT will pay at least $35 to get YHOO. So it's another speculative buy. Next week's earning may play out to speedy up the process.

Reduce exposure to commodities

Since I added last week, commodities in general were about 2 to 3% higher. I cut the exposure today, sold all SLV, some DBA and DGP. Now I have cash to add on the dip.
Long term, still like gold and silver. But there is a G-7 meeting this weekend (central bankers may try to boost dollar); and IMF's sales of gold; and we may have deep recession, according to Fed. All these can trigger another round of deleverage of commodities, so rather be safe than sorry.
If commodities rally, I still have positions in DBP, DBA, DBC, GLD and DGP.

Added commodities again

Recently I sold GDX, DBA and DBC before the commodities sold off, which was a great move. I kept my gain. And I added on the first sell off on March 20 and March 24th, which was again a great move. But I didn't sell, and yesterday it fell below the price I paid. I added DGP and DBP again yesterday.

Lessons learned:

1. When you luckily picked a bottom, and your positions showed a profit (like on March 27th), 10% for my SLV and DBP, should sell.
2. Since I thought this rally would be sold. I was expecting GLD to test just below $1000, like $980, I was wrong, it didn't even pass $950.
3. Now I added more, I have too big exposure to gold, silver and other commodities, I need to reduce the positions on rally.
4. Long term, still like gold and silver,but with recent vicious sell offs, my thinking is not as strong as before, so reduce position is a good idea.
5. Think DBA is still the best, even with Barron's article, it showed strength, compared to precious metals.