Wednesday, April 16, 2008

Gold may head higher

After watching gold and other commodities recently, today I added GDX, DBA, DBP and a speculative play in PAL. I also added YHOO, think the deal may near and it's easily a $35-$40 stock if MSFT is determined to have it.
  1. Fundamentally, gold and commodities are very good long term, thanks to inflation and the weakened U.S. dollar. It's a long term trend, may still have a few years, even a decade left, before it runs out of gas.
  2. Technically, two things happened in gold, today is the first time GLD's MACD clearly turned to positive, signal that the correction may be over; another, this is the first time GDX clearly outperform GLD recently, indicates people think the gold companies will do far better than gold, that's a leading indicator that gold will go higher.
  3. And, since the March sell off in gold, today is first time gold and general market are both up big. So I think the funds allocated for PM are back.
  4. I added DBA, that's a play on food crisis. I think the run in DBA is not over.
  5. I added DBP. So I cover both gold and silver.
  6. PAL is a palladium play. Palladium is in the PGM group with platinum, has unique properties, over half of palladium is used in catalytic converters in all the new cars today to reduce pollution. PAL is one of two palladium play in U.S., another being SWC. I think it's like URZ that I played last year, can easily doubled or tripled within a year, and as easily halved in a year. But I think the odds is going higher, since it's more rare than gold and it has great industry application, palladium shall be worth more than gold, eventually.
  7. I think MSFT will pay at least $35 to get YHOO. So it's another speculative buy. Next week's earning may play out to speedy up the process.

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