Thursday, October 2, 2008

This is it!

With VIX over 40 again (Monday and Thursday) and we're back to the low of the week, I think this is it!
  1. We're going to bounce back and have a very strong rally.
  2. Or, we're going to crash like 10% or more, like the 1987 black Monday.
  3. I think we're going to have a rally. That's my judgement, and I put my money in financial, and today added MOS and UYG.
  4. I sold TSO and WNR yesterday and switched to UYG. Just one day, I lost about 2-3% in UYG (comparing to the price I bought UYG yesterday), and I actually saved myself about 9%. Since both TSO and WNR lost 11% today!
  5. I also added KOL and CNX too early in the week. Since both are down like 10% today.
  6. Considering everything is sold in market, including gold, I think we're nearing a strong rally. Looks like people are exiting everything and hold on to cash. Either this is a great opportunity, or this is the great warning of a great crash!
  7. MS and UYG are showing strength today, down 4% and 7% respectively. Usually, they'd double or triple the precentage of down side of the market.
  8. If the bill is passed, the one sector that benefits the most is financial. Therefore UYG is my choice.
  9. This is it. We either will have a strong rally or a great crash.
  10. If we have a small rally, then we may have a sustained rally. But I think most people will use rally to sell their positions, and a strong rally like Friday and then Monday is the most likely outcome.
  11. I hope I am right.

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