Sunday, October 26, 2008

Moment of truth

Next week, I'll find out what's in this market: a crash or a range bound swings. Also, I'll find out myself, do I have the ability to adjust and do the best I can in the market. It's the moment of truth.
  1. Don't believe in the Fed's ability to cure or mitigate the risk in the economy and market.
  2. Don't believe in the bulls. They are wrong all the way.
  3. Don't believe in the bears. They are right this time, by luck.
  4. The best trader, can swing with the majority of the market. Or, just catch a ride, no matter it's a bull market, bear market.
  5. Therefore, I need to exam my positions and adjust accordingly.
  6. Be safe is not a bad idea, if I have no idea what's out there in the market.
  7. Be brave is not a bad idea, if I am on the right side of the trade.
  8. Have to consider, there is a chance, we'll have a real crash, another 20% on top of what we had already, 40% off high.
  9. Have to consider, there is a chance, for a strong bounce that will hurt bears for a few months.
  10. My take, we'll have not see the bottom. I was wrong to think it's the bottom or near it. Market actions last week proved this.
  11. I feel like we may have another panic selling, a real one, like the one on Oct.10th. 10% or more to the down side.
  12. If that doesn't happen, since people are on the edge, a good event can trigger a massive rally, since if they can't take it down, they will take it up. This is the market mentality right now.
  13. You have to be right, and the action is fast and strong, either direction.

0 comments: