Saturday, February 17, 2007

Week Review

Overall market
  1. The major indexes all finished the week with gains of more than 1%. The Dow's weekly advance was its biggest in three months, and the index is up 2.4% year-to-date. The Nasdaq is up 3.4% on the year. The S&P 500 has advanced 2.6% so far this year.
  2. The market is due for a correction, if not a turn for a bear market. QID is the best way to play this overall market. A 20% decline in Nasdaq in 2007 is very likely. There are two main pillars support this:
  3. The bull market started Oct. 2002 has run out of steam, stocks in general are overvalued considering the earning growth.
  4. The housing market has yet to bottom, a recession is possible, and a slow growth in economy is very likely, that will cut into corporate earning growth, which determines the stock price.

Precious Metal Stocks

  1. GLD closed at 66.36 from 66.12 a week ago. SLV closed at 139.01 from 138.05 a week ago. Gold consolidated its gain and stayed above $660 for a week. I think the next up trend in gold is in place and next target is $700 in March.
  2. SSRI closed at 34.91 from 34.47 a week ago. Technically, it absorbed the recent gains and it's a good sign it stays above $34. Same thing for PAAS. It closed at 28.60 from 28.01 a week ago.
  3. AEM closed at 39.95 from 40.30 a week ago. The news of taking over CLG knocked 3% off its price. Like this low cost gold producer with main mines in Canada.
  4. GG closed at 28.21 from 28.49 a week ago. GG may not offer great returns as junior gold, but it's relatively stable, and if major mutual funds start to add gold shares, only three choices: ABX, NEM and GG. I think GG is the best among these three.

RIMM

  1. RIMM closed at 138.82 from 134.21 a week ago. Another tough week for my puts.
  2. This is the reason this is a great trade stock. I sold March 145 put position early this week to make a 30% gain. But I didn't sell others, when it's at $132.
  3. I should learn lessons from RIMM, when there is a chance, take the profit.
  4. It seems every time it looks broken down, it just rolls all the way back.
  5. I'll add put again next week when it hits 140 or above.
  6. In one year, I think it's a $60-70 stock. Before the end of April, I see it at $100.

Uranium

  1. I sold all FRG stocks I bought the last two weeks, for a 15% gain.
  2. Based on some analysis on other uranium stocks, I bought EMU and URZ. I'll use these two as pure uranium plays. They are less known than FRG among traders, which make them attractive to me.
  3. I will consider FRG if it's around $11 or lower.
  4. In the long run, these uranium stocks will do better than most of the PM stocks, which will do better than S&P 500.
  5. But there are very risky, can have a 30% correction and still in a great bull market.
  6. There are BB uranium stocks, which I could not find charts and facts, so I'll pass them and focus on FRG,EMU and URZ.

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