Overall market
- The major indexes all finished the week with gains of more than 1%. The Dow's weekly advance was its biggest in three months, and the index is up 2.4% year-to-date. The Nasdaq is up 3.4% on the year. The S&P 500 has advanced 2.6% so far this year.
- The market is due for a correction, if not a turn for a bear market. QID is the best way to play this overall market. A 20% decline in Nasdaq in 2007 is very likely. There are two main pillars support this:
- The bull market started Oct. 2002 has run out of steam, stocks in general are overvalued considering the earning growth.
- The housing market has yet to bottom, a recession is possible, and a slow growth in economy is very likely, that will cut into corporate earning growth, which determines the stock price.
Precious Metal Stocks
- GLD closed at 66.36 from 66.12 a week ago. SLV closed at 139.01 from 138.05 a week ago. Gold consolidated its gain and stayed above $660 for a week. I think the next up trend in gold is in place and next target is $700 in March.
- SSRI closed at 34.91 from 34.47 a week ago. Technically, it absorbed the recent gains and it's a good sign it stays above $34. Same thing for PAAS. It closed at 28.60 from 28.01 a week ago.
- AEM closed at 39.95 from 40.30 a week ago. The news of taking over CLG knocked 3% off its price. Like this low cost gold producer with main mines in Canada.
- GG closed at 28.21 from 28.49 a week ago. GG may not offer great returns as junior gold, but it's relatively stable, and if major mutual funds start to add gold shares, only three choices: ABX, NEM and GG. I think GG is the best among these three.
RIMM
- RIMM closed at 138.82 from 134.21 a week ago. Another tough week for my puts.
- This is the reason this is a great trade stock. I sold March 145 put position early this week to make a 30% gain. But I didn't sell others, when it's at $132.
- I should learn lessons from RIMM, when there is a chance, take the profit.
- It seems every time it looks broken down, it just rolls all the way back.
- I'll add put again next week when it hits 140 or above.
- In one year, I think it's a $60-70 stock. Before the end of April, I see it at $100.
Uranium
- I sold all FRG stocks I bought the last two weeks, for a 15% gain.
- Based on some analysis on other uranium stocks, I bought EMU and URZ. I'll use these two as pure uranium plays. They are less known than FRG among traders, which make them attractive to me.
- I will consider FRG if it's around $11 or lower.
- In the long run, these uranium stocks will do better than most of the PM stocks, which will do better than S&P 500.
- But there are very risky, can have a 30% correction and still in a great bull market.
- There are BB uranium stocks, which I could not find charts and facts, so I'll pass them and focus on FRG,EMU and URZ.
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