Thursday, February 1, 2007

Personal savings fall to 74 year low

  1. Personal savings rate for 2006 tumbles to negative 1 percent, the lowest level in 74 years. The savings rate has been negative for an entire year only four times in history -- in 2005 and 2006 and in 1933 and 1932. This shows the economy runs out of steam, since personal spending accounts for two third of U.S. GDP.
  2. The Senate voted overwhelmingly Thursday to boost the federal minimum wage by $2.10 to $7.25 an hour over two years. This is the first increase in a decade and way over due. Once it's signed into law later this year, it will put pressure on cost and cut corporate profit in the long run without the increase of productivity.
  3. Today market is flat except Dow hits another record. QQQQ actually falls. I think there are many risks that are not reflected in the market: Iraq, Iran and middle east; U.S. deficits continue to grow; corporate profits may fall faster then expected; housing may not hit bottom yet. I'll continue to use QID as the proxy to participate the decline of the market.
  4. Today PM did really well, considering oil made a turn from green to red; and PM shares still finished in green. SSRI, PAAS, AEM and GG all show signs of exhaustion and may pull back. Use the pull back (2-5%) to add position again. They are good for long term.
  5. RIMM closed down less than 1, and again in light volume. I'm glad I have Jan. 2008 put. I can wait.
  6. Tomorrow is the last day with lot of data coming in, let's see how market react to the news.
  7. China's shares started to fall, led by BIDU and PGJ. 130% return last year in China's Shanghai index maybe too much. They may fall further in the next 6 months to 1 year.

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