Wednesday, January 31, 2007

Volume picks up

  1. Fed didn't say anything bad, and that moved the market? I don't trust this first reaction to the news, and will see what happens tomorrow.
  2. Nasdaq is up 0.6% and Dow is up 0.9%. QID is down 1.8%. Won't add QID until I see clearly what's next for the market.
  3. For the time being, I still like QID for this year and think market will have a sharp correction to start a bear market sometime this year. But if the soft landing is real, then there is a chance it's won't start a bear market, but I doubt it.
  4. RIMM closed up more than 4 to almost 128 with light volume. I like the Jan.2008 puts on RIMM and will add more if it hits 130 or higher. It's just a matter of time before it breaks down. Bulls try to scare weak bears to cover the short positions, that may delay its decline for a short time, but over a year, it won't make any difference.
  5. SSRI and PAAS all hit new highs today. They're a little tired, but long term, both of them will go a lot higher. SLV has not break out to new high yet, so we have long way to go.
  6. GDX, AEM and GG moved higher as well. GLD has not break last year's high, so we have a long way to go on these PM shares. I also like AUY and GRS.
  7. USO,OIH and XLE were all higher today. I don't like to buy them now. Maybe a dead cat bounce. Long term, I like OIH. But not now, I think we may have a recession due to the housing bubble burst, then economy will slow, oil demand will be gone.
  8. Let's see how market reacts to GOOG's earning tomorrow, my view is it will move at least 10% down or up in the next month after its earning release today. GOOG pretty much blow away both bottom and top line numbers. But, that may not be enough for some investors.
  9. Tomorrow I'll only add PM shares on weakness and RIMM put if it breaks above 130 or more. Both cases, I'll add gradually.

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