Uranium is up and RIMM is down

Uranium, PM and market:

1. Uranium spot price hits $85 per lb this week, up 13% from last week's $75. Two weeks ago, the price was at $72. This is unbelievable.
2. And Cramer came out and built a bullish case for EMU. I don't trust his picks, it's a joke that one man can cover all the stocks and make you rich. but this one I agree, it's a long term play.
3. Today, EMU was up 2.9%, URZ up 3%, CCJ up 3.4% and FRG down 2.7%. It's a great run for uranium stocks recently.
4. FRG's loss is due to its sale of 4.7M shares for $60M. Obviously, FRG is happy with its recent gain and is happy to cash in. Not a bad move from long term perspective, the stock price may have a correction as a result, it's already over extended. I'll be a buyer when it's around $11 or lower, today it closed at 12.80.
5. PM shares were mixed, with gold and silver took a break. SSRI and PAAS were up a fraction, SLW, IAG and AEM were down.
6. Dow closed down and Nasdaq closed up, again repeated yesterday's performance. QID is at all time low, I will hold it. My PM and uranium positions keep my portfolio up.
7. My thesis of why market is overextended and overvalued is still true to me today as it's to me a month ago; actually, it's more true to me today than it's a month ago.

RIMM:

1. RIMM was down to 140. There are two major events that can move its price quickly, one is the official earning reports and the result of the options probe before or on March 3rd, and second one is the current quarter earning release in late March or early April.
2. I think the first one is at best a nonevent, that is, won't cause price to move lower; at worst, it may report larger than expected one time charge, and may implicate its co-CEOs, then its price will drop like a rock.
3. For current quarter's earning, several analysts already came out saying it's very strong, so they won't miss it. Just like last quarter, revenue will top analyst's view, but earning and margin below analyst's view. Market will react negatively to this kind of news, it's the same issue with internet stocks in spring 2000: shrinking earning on larger revenues means they run out of steam and try to squeeze the last dime out of their saturated market.
4. If the above is true this quarter, or in the next two quarters, then I think RIMM's bull run is over. It will correct at least 50%. But it's hard to time this, and RIMM may still have some momentum left.
5. Of course, if market turns south as I predicted, then RIMM is the first to go: just like in March 2000, after the peak, YHOO, JDSU, ARBA, CSCO and QCOM, these high growth stocks dived. It will happen to RIMM and AAPL this time. Actually, AAPL will do more harm to RIMM than all the analysts realized. AAPL will survive the crash, just like CSCO did, but RIMM may not, like JDSU and ARBA in 2000, it's a one product company. It's overvalued because wall street analysts use it every day and love it, that doesn't mean average consumer love it. This adds lot of premium to its stock price.
6. Yes, the crash maybe one month away, maybe six months away, even a year away, but it will happen.
7. If it's a year away, then it's my bad analysis and decision to get in so early. Lessons learned, and should focus on PM instead. It's difficult to short, very.
8. My trade purpose is not to prove I'm right, my purpose is to make money, all others are nonsense.