Trade ideas for week 1-22-07 to 1-26-07

Market prediction:

1. Nasdaq and S&P500 close 2-3% lower.
2. GLD closes up 2-3%. This is again to play the dollar trend and considering gold pulled back in the first week of the year.
3. USO and oil will continue to bounce next week, by 2% or more. OIH and XLE close up 3%. But there are wildcards there, so it's risky to play OIH and XLE for next week, IMHO.

Trade idea:

Long:

1. Best way to play gold is via precious metal stocks. In a long run, HUI index (precious metal stocks index) has a 4x leverage over gold.
2. The stocks I like in PM are: AEM, GG, PAAS and SSRI.
3. AEM is the best midcap gold stock, GG is the best largecap gold.
4. PAAS is the best silver stock in terms of production and cost, SSRI is the best silver stock in terms of reserves and discovery.
5. QID. This is to short QQQQ.

Short:

1. The best way to play next week's Nasdaq down side it to short RIMM. RIMM will close lower to around 115, plus or minus 3 points. Technically, RIMM is below 50MA and with Sales/Prices ration at 1 to 10, it's the most overvalued cell phone stock. Fundamentally, long term, it faces fierce competitions from mobile giants NOK, MOT, Samsung; and now AAPL is entering the fields with iPhone from up end market.