Wednesday, March 7, 2007

Market showed weakness at close

Market:

  1. Market closed lower today. It started to sell into close right around 3PM ET today, this is a pattern three of the last 4 trading days:
  2. We also have very weak close on last Friday and Monday. Tuesday is the only exception without weak close.
  3. I think major funds are using any rally to sell. So my intuition of further down side may still be right, unless there are good news to move the market, otherwise I expect a slowly lower movement in the next few weeks or days, with at least one big and powerful down leg to indicate the end of this movement.

RIMM delayed its regulatory filing again, stock closed at 135:

  1. In the never ending drama of delay of filing of RIMM today, the lawyer said following:
  2. "I would be reluctant to hazard a guess on the date, but it's very close to being completed," Robert Staley, a lawyer for RIM, told an Ontario Securities Commission hearing on Wednesday regarding the work that remains to be done.
    "The company expects to be current in its filings very shortly."
    He also said that if the company's filings aren't up to date by April 11, it expects to file preliminary fourth-quarter results, as it has done in the past.
  3. And the reports continued: At Wednesday's hearing, the OSC said that if RIM isn't current in its filings by June 1, it would have to appear before the commission again on June 5. The OSC has said RIM is co-operating.
  4. So, it's possible that they can delay the filing until OSC is mad at RIMM, but so far OSC is happy, so the drama started last Sept. can last another 3 months, or if they want, another 3 years. Since for them "very shortly" means a few days, weeks, months, or years.
  5. I'm sure they'll report "supplemental information" to "additional preliminary" results when they officially file with OSC and SEC, like they forget another $100 million dollar somewhere due to "technical mistakes".
  6. To say it's a joke about the way RIMM played OSC and SEC is an understatement! And so far SEC and OSC are happy! I don't know when they'll be unhappy.
  7. And in a research report today, Merrill Lynch analyst Vivek Arya sang the praise for RIMM again, the $165 target is not changed. BTW, if RIMM reaches $165, he'll move it to $200. This is what RBC analyst did 9 days ago( raised target from $145 to $180), right before the market selloff.
  8. It's frustrated to play a overvalued stock like RIMM with patience for more than 4 months, and still nothing to show for it. And I am patient, for these who jumped in to short since early Oct. when it shot up from $80 to $105, they're crashed.
  9. There is no fundamentals behind its rise, just speculation and momentum, plus early shorts added to the fuel by covering, which brought in another round of buying by momentum players and shorts.
  10. However, this cycle is closing to an end: RIMM failed to pass $140 in three attempts in as many months.
  11. I see longs on RIMM get burned eventually, just don't know when, and it will be very painful for these who hold RIMM shares at the time of the crash.

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