A resilient market

The market performed relatively well today, considering it's another rout in world markets led by 3% decline in Japan and 4% in Hong Kong, but market took less than 15 minutes to bounce off morning lows and stayed well off the low for most of the days, until last 30 minutes which finished at the low of the day. There is NO black Monday, like someone eagerly called!

Market:

1. Nasdaq dropped the most, closed down 1.2% at 2340.
2. I added another QID position right at the open, bad entry, very bad.
3. I hope it's a bad entry only, not a wrong trade. Wrong trade always costs you money, bad entry only reduces your profit.

RIMM:

1. RIMM had the bad news out, reported 250 million charge (initial estimate is 25-45 million), Chairman out as a result, yet it recovered from low of 131 to close at 134. This is a stock the defied all reasons.
2. There is only one explanation to this, the major funds are still in it, they'll prepare for a graceful exit. As a matter of fact, several analysts called it a nonevent today, one even shamelessly gave credit to RIMM's management for option probe? Wow, people can spin any news any way they want, but I'm not buying.
3. BTW, once the news is out today, after two days(I don't know if this is still the rule), insiders can sell again. They stop selling for more than 6 months, so there are millions shares unlocked, I have to say, watch out below.
4. Even with market get a bounce, I see RIMM below 120 at the end of March, but I'm wrong on this one for a long time, it may even rally tomorrow to scare the weak shorts.

Sub prime mortgage and Yen carry trades:

1. I knew the sub prime mortgage weeks ago, even wrote in my blog and added articles about sub prime in the "Financial Article" and "Market Trend" sections; I knew NEW and NFI weeks ago, read articles about them, did NOTHING.
2. Today NEW was off 70% and 40%. That's lot of money, you can short, you can buy puts, where is my research on this and idea?
3. I'm too focused on PM and overall markets, obsessed with RIMM, result: I am totally blind to the sub prime mortgage plays.
4. Please, when read articles, think, think, and think some more. You can make lot of money out of it.
5. Even the Yen carry trades and markets initial reaction was wrong, I didn't research, even though I know FXY is the proxy to trade the unwinding. I did NOTHING!
6. So today, to make up my mistakes, I added small CFC and CNB puts. Yes, they are not sub prime mortgage plays, but I think it may spread into other mortgage business. Yes, it's late, but I decided to enter it so I can monitor them, and even be profitable. Actually, even today's return is more than 10%, since they both ended much lower than when I bought them early today.

PM continued its diving today and ^GDM lost another 2.5%. Now I think it may have a nice bounce tomorrow, but I didn't do anything today since I'm too focused on ultra short ETFs.

What's next:

1. I think the down side is not over, use rally and bounce to sell, not buy.
2. Will manage March puts, rest put options are OK.
3. Still expect another blog down leg to occur in the next few weeks, or new few months.
4. Market may bounce a little bit, go side ways, then I expect it's going down again, matching the same magnitude (5-7%) from last week.