Thursday, March 29, 2007

Revised GDP rallies market

Today the final GDP for Q4 was revised upward from the downwardly revised GDP of 2.2% to 2.5%. This rallies the market, but Nsadaq spent most of the day in red before closed flat.
  1. All major indices were still closed below 50MA, so short term trend is still intact:down.
  2. The GDP number is not that great underline, the business inventory was revised upward, while computer and software were revised downward, which means there was more production but less purchase by consumer, again not a good news for the future growth.
  3. Iran's tension with West continued to drag the market, pushed oil above $66.
  4. Unless the issue was dramatically resolved tomorrow, I think tomorrow market will be under pressure again, short term traders don't want to hold positions over the weekend, I won't be surprised the market sell off ahead of the weekend.

Plan:

  1. Need to watch gold carefully, I want to see it finishes strong in light of the oil surge and tension in the middle east. But so far, it's very disappointed. I'd like to see gold rally and assume its heaven status before I add PM shares.
  2. Overall market, I'd like to see it move down. Ultra ETFs should help me.
  3. CFC finished really weak today, from 3.5% early to only finished up 0.4%. This is after two days of more than 3% drops. I will short on any strength on CFC.
  4. And late tonight, news report CFC's COO get 19M for his 2006 performance. Is this right? Considering its business is taking a dive, why should he get this package? Is this like the 2000, internet executives still get great compensation due to their 1999 performance. More downside for CFC.
  5. RIMM was weak too. Next week it should report "earning", without providing any details to analysts since they could not officially release earning due to 250M option charge since last Sept.
  6. It may push the stock down, I don't see any reason it goes up.
  7. RIMM's earning should be in the weak side, while they may surpass the revenue target.
  8. They may do the same as DELL when eventually they report 2006 earning, finding additional errors, which is one of its strength to continue to find additional technical errors. RIMM is really good at hiding the truth from public.
  9. Seems like they continue to leak bad news to the public one piece at a time. Tomorrow they'll do the meaningless bi-weekly update again, what a joke! I won't add any new RIMM puts again, since I have enough. Don't want to add all in one basket.

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