Monday, April 16, 2007

A new high for S&P500

The market reached a new multi-year high for S&P500. I totally misjudged the market after the Feb.27th correction.
  1. The only good thing I did recently was to sell SDS on April 5th and started to add URZ and EMU. I also sold MZZ. Both SDS and MZZ saved me money, since market went up. And URZ gained more than 10% since last week.
  2. I sold half of EMU and URZ today, wanted to keep the gain and raise cash. Will likely to sell the rest tomorrow. A more than 10% gain in URZ in 5 days is too good to be true. And tomorrow we have CPI number, housing start, building permit, all these numbers, plus earnings. I want to be on the safe side.
  3. For the market, now this can be a double top for the market, it's overbought, why risk losing the profit in URZ? That's the reason I sold half of URZ and EMU today.
  4. RIMM was down on a up market, again not a good sign for RIMM.
  5. Today I also added small QQQQ put and CFC put again. CFC was up more than 6% today. I continue to like the short idea on CFC.

What's next:

  1. I think there is a great chance this is a double top or faked breakout for the market, considering the fundamental reasons in the economy. That's the reason I added QQQQ put recently.
  2. And I raised cash today so I can play if it comes to that.
  3. CFC should be shorted in any rally, which I did today, added puts.
  4. RIMM will come down hard if market corrects again, like Feb.27th.
  5. Now I have enough short ETFs to play the market down turn.
  6. If I'm wrong again, I have enough cash and will decide what's next.
  7. I think once April is over, market will enter a seasonal weak period, so I probably will hold on to these short ETFs and puts.

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