Monday, May 21, 2007

Bowed out

Another day, another record in S&P 500, today it's the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 that led.
  1. China's market dived down more than 3.5% at opening, then closed higher 1%. Once I saw this in the morning, I know it's another long day for shorts like me.
  2. I waited to try to get a better price to sell the shorts, instead, I got worse price as it continued to move higher.
  3. I sold all QID, my biggest position today. I also sold some RIMM puts. I'm blooded and bowed out.
  4. I kept DXD and TWM, plus lot of puts. I'll do this one position at a time. In case there is a pullback, I get better price. Usually after I sold, the price moved up. Let's see the luck continues.
  5. Added URZ again today. Last time it saved me after I sold some short ETFs. It's a very speculative play.
  6. And I sold CYD calls and my other long ONXX is not working so far. But I'll wait for the ASCO and see if there is any momentum.
  7. I have no one to blame but myself. The biggest problem is not my pick or bearishness, the biggest problem is money management, I should never keep such a big percentage on the short side. I should cut loss short.
  8. Let's start over.
  9. Change brings hope, but that's it.
  10. I can be screwed twice, once by shorting and now I moved to some long positions, these longs (URZ and ONXX) can crash too.
  11. So keep things in perspective, and try to come back from this disaster.

What's next:

  1. Now I think the bubble will keep growing for a few months.
  2. Let's be nimble and try not to lose further.
  3. Last thing to do is to make some money back. But the main priority is not to lose more money.
  4. Keep in mind the great traders are these cut loss quick, this is what I'm missing. I know this and thought I know what I'm doing, sometimes, ego plays a bigger part than discipline.
  5. In Early March, my QID was a winner, now it's a big loser. Just 2 months later and 20% lower.
  6. So the first thing I will do is to cut loss quick, that is the first rule. No matter what.

1 comments:

Michael Rottersman said...

Nothing looks better to me right now than QID. Insiders are selling like crazy at the semiconductors; Apple has peaked; Dell is in a hole it won't be climbing out of anytime soon; no one is buying flat panel TV's etc.

You might be right about rally going few more months, but I was encouraged that market didn't shoot up on news of Chinese investment in Blackstone.

The mutual funds have no cash and Mom and Pop aren't getting into this market (unlike China). This M&A stuff is smoke and mirrors, and once it clears, the word recession will be in every headline.