I could not be more on the wrong side the last two days. I keep the shorts and puts on Monday, figured it's about time. And yesterday and today's market rallies push me back to the wall.
- Let's be real, the good earnings recently were due to lowered expectations of analysts and companies lowered guidance, S&P500's earning growth rate is in single digit in 1Q. And why the market quickly recovered from Feb.27th sell off and shot to new highs?
- I think it's not a if, it's when the market will sell off again.
- Do we push to new highs before we sell off?
- Do we slowly edge down? Once you realize it, it's already too far.
- I don't know the answer. I've been dead wrong since April 20th, the day I started to add DIA puts and DXD. Yes, I have multiple chances to even take a profit, but I didn't, and see them slipped into red quickly.
- Today I played DIA puts again, and quickly exit it in a small profit. I want to keep the cash so that I can survive this relentless marching higher.
- Added a small DXD again today.
- Maybe my read on the market was way off, all things considered, it's still not overvalued?
- I know we'll have a big sell off, I don't know when, and I don't know how it's going to play out?
- One thing worth knowing, 1982 is the bottom of a great new bull market, it got a correction in 1987, and the top was 2000. And if we're in a new bull market, then 2002 is the bottom, and we're 5 years into this bull market without any meaningful correction.
- People said 3rd year in the election cycle is always great to be in stock, so was 1987.
- So maybe it's still a few months away from the 2007 crash? If you check the 1987 chart, we had a several months correction (8%) from April to June before market moved higher to the Oct.1987 crash? I thought history won't repeat itself.
- I'll reduce the shorts and puts whenever I have chance, at least to be on the safe side. Now maybe not the best time to make money (via shorts), but to not lose money (via shorts and market move higher).
3 comments:
We are 3-5 months away from a top in the market. Just my opinion.
The markets worldwide are due for a correction. I believe it's much safer to wait until the correction happens and go long rather than try to time a short position, especially an ultrashort position with the DXD, QID, and SDS.
I'll be very surprised if we make it through May without a significant downturn. Rarely do markets continue on this steep of an upward trend without a pullback.
Your reading the technicals and trying to anticipate the market. For the market to drop most have to be on the same page. Listen to tv when they convince most something might happen it will. It's a marketing thing. One analyst or economist is not enough to make a directional change. When 40 or 50 percent start talking it, then it's about time. The market is dumber than you give credit. The sell at the close today was some indication.
The global profits keeps it going. We seem to be following the asian markets. If they are up we go up. When they sell we sell.
Go with the flow. If your a week early your already behind not ahead.
Post a Comment