Wednesday, June 20, 2007

Good

Finally we got one 1% down day in Dow, S&P500 and Nasdaq. It's good.
  1. It's like a pattern since Feb.27th sell off, whenever we have a big down day, we'll have even stronger rally after that. Will this time be different? I'm sure bulls will use the dip as buying opportunity.
  2. But this is the first time market failed to take out the previous high before we have a 1% down day. If you check the chart on S&P500, all more than 1% drops since March were followed by higher highs, this is the first time market failed that. We had a sell off early June and market failed to take out the June 4th high.
  3. But if market rally big tomorrow, the observation is meaningless. We need a follow through tomorrow on the down side, which is hard to find these days.
  4. During the June 5-7 sell off, it's the first time we have three down days in a row for a long time. But the market rallied three days in a row following that. So don't even think about a sharp correction.
  5. I'll take a realistic approach this time. I need to sell puts this time when we have a 2% drop. I need to learn from previous mistakes. I need to raise cash.
  6. I think I may keep most of the ultra shorts ETFs. No action today. I tried to buy FXI puts, but the limit order was not filled. It's OK, I have too many puts and short ETFs.

Two TA patterns for bears:

  1. Double tops in Dow and S&P500.
  2. Lower high. Market didn't get new highs before today's drop. We need lower lows than June 7th's low to confirm this.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

It's interesting that the Asian markets are taking this down day in the U.S. markets in stride. In fact they are up.

Thursday and Friday will be telling. If short term interests rates continue to climb, the dollar will climb too, causing a drop in gold and silver. Equities will take a hit as well. I think the only safe place right now to go long is energy, specifically refineries and drillers.

Once the market is in a confirmed downtrend I'll pick up SDD and QID.

My three cents,

David

Anonymous said...

Today's move maybe due to Blackstone's IPO tomorrow. Why they moved it from June 25th to June 22? I think they want to avoid a bad environment next week.
And Wall Street has a way to keep things up. Time will tell if next week or first week in July we have a sell off.