Reversal day

Today is a reversal day, no matter whatever reason bulls and bears can find to explain the down day, it's a reversal day! Specially after we've been down two out of three days, and we're in a bull market, today's reversal has significant meaning. Bulls find it's hard to get a rally, and bears find it's easy to get a down day. These feelings will be enhanced if we continue on a down path.

1. Many traders are very bullish now, think we'll get a bounce back rally. Even some bears think the same way. This to me is an indication we have more down leg to go. Almost everyone are on the same page, the market goes the other direction. But I don't know how mutual funds managers are thinking, which is the deciding factor here.
2. I think we may pass through 1490 on S&P 500 and test 1460 soon.
3. Of course since we're at 50MA for Nasdaq and just above 50MA for Dow, it's interesting to see if bulls can push the market to rally one more time, if they can't watch out below.
4. It's been a pattern since early March, we always rallied from 50MA; and this time S&P500 is the first to give up 50MA.
5. Don't be oversmart to think you can catch a bounce and then a correction at the same time. It may work this way, it may not.
6. From ISEE, looks like it's still very bullish, which makes me think we have more down side to go, and S&P500 and Dow are not oversold yet, and frankly, on a down trend, we'll get oversold easily, just like on an up trend, we'll get overbought easily.
7. I expect at least a lower close some time this week, how do we get there, I'm not sure. We may get a bounce tomorrow.

Action today:

1. I sold the put options I bought last Friday and sold them after market touched low and then started to bounce. Not the best price, but it's great I didn't sell early morning after market took off to highs, and the profit is good.
2. The best play is DIA puts I added around 11:30am (MST), I sold it after 1:30(pm) for a good profit too. Maybe I need to do this often.
3. After I sold the QQQQ puts, I added QQQQ puts again before the market close, but chose a lower strike price, to reduce exposure, but keep more put positions in the market. Time will tell if this is a bad move or good move.
4. Tomorrow we'll have more data coming in, how market reacts to these is very important.

Blackstone indicator:

1. BX is the largest IPO in the last few years, and it's action tell us more about the market than anything else.
2. It opened Friday at 38 and closed at 35.
3. Today it closed at 33.
4. Checking the chart, it is straight down from the opening on Friday, there is no rallies during two days of action. This seems to me, indicates a market top. If a private equity firm like BX can't get investors interested, it means the end of this bull run.
5. And Blackstone people are very smart, and they pushed the IPO days early, also an indication of more bad news for market to come.
6. I'll continue to watch the new found BX indicator, if you check them, even during today's market rally, it's down. So tomorrow, if market is up and BX is down again, I'll be comfortable shorting; but the other way around, I'll be worried.
7. Pretty sure people knew the price path for FIG, since it's IPO closed at 31, today it closed at 23. If BX follows the same path, we have more cut for BX.
8. BTW, Blackstone doesn't have the courage to take the symbol BS, which is an disappointment.