Today I was really lucky. The SPY, IWM calls and SSO I bought yesterday was very profitable when market opened, but I became greedy, think this maybe the big day for me to cash in. Then the market turned and Dow went from up 100 to down 40 points! I just wanted to cut these losses!
- Remember my MDY calls on Monday, it was profitable at the open, then went down, still profitable, I didn't sell. I did the same thing again!
- I didn't cut losses, hoping for a bounce, and just one hour before the market closed, I got the chance again, this time I took it and sold all my positions for a small profit. Now I'm all cash again.
- I don't care if the market was oversold, or AAPL's earning, just want to be able to sleep one good night.
- After the market closed, AAPL blew away the estimate again. And the stock took off again. So did BIDU. Looks like we'll have a great open again tomorrow.
- On the other end, housing number was bad, CDO and subprime issues are getting worse by day. We may have a full blown credit crisis, just like 1998. If that indeed happens, I see at least 10-15% correction in S&P500.
- But short term, we'll still likely to see a bounce. I'll be careful to use small positions if I want to chase it.
- Over a few weeks, we may see if the end of this bull market is here.
- After next week, with major earnings out, I think we'll likely to enter a correction phase of this bull market.
- I'll do more day trade if my indicators give me signals.
- And even with these signals, use them quickly, don't turn a trade into an investment.
- As a trader, it's very hard to know what the news will be; and the charts can tell me different trades based on my view--bullish or bearish.
- As a trader, it's better to know how to react than to predict. I think the trader who can react to the market moving events by making the right moves after facts, is a successful trader.
- I need to work hard to make myself to be a trader who knows how to react.
- I need to remove the element of analysis to be right, to be perfect, to be able to pick a top or bottom.
- I need to reduce the risks if I'm not sure about the market by sitting on cash.
- Since last Wednesday, I was lucky enough to be able to act correctly in most of my trades, and as a result, I made some money back. Keep it up!
- VIX rose recently, indicating more volatile market ahead of us, it's a market for trader, not investor.
4 comments:
As long as you don't hold any positions overnight I can see how you "might" make money with short term trades. Nobody would have guessed a sharply lower open on Thursday morning after AAPL, QCOM, and other companies produced solid earnings with huge after-hours upside. Those who bought late in the day on Wednesday are going to have a painful morning (Thursday).
I know there are many out there who are a lot smarter and a lot more educated regarding TA and FA. It makes sense to hook up my investment wagon to folks like Investors Business Daily and avoid the pundits who scream Booohya at their audience. At this point, I'll wait to commit more money when IBD indicates we are in a confirmed downtrend. My hunch, and that's all it is, is that we are at the top of a slide and headed down.
Keep posting! I enjoy your commentary.
David
David, very lucky for me, I sold the calls yesterday. I did learn the lessons from Monday's MDY calls. If you check my post in trades link, you can see I made some gains by using intra day trades. Now it's time for traders, not investors. You're right, don't commit big positions unless you're sure about the market direction.
Well, I did well with DXD and MZZ today and locked in the gains when the DOW was down near 300 points. I don't want to be greedy. Now I'll watch for long positions for companies like EMC, SLW, and IAG.
As soon as I make over 1k in less than a week I lock in the gain. So far so good.
David
Congrats David, if we have a bounce, then you really did well by taking these ultra short ETFs off.
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