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What does the market really think? What does the majority of the traders think? That's the question I should ask before I added too many positions on Tuesday. If I can not only check charts, indicators and past patterns, but also ask the question, then I can improve my timing and reduce mistakes.

1. We sold off hard on Tuesday, and I thought this was the test of the recent low.
2. But wait, we have the "Bernanke put" coming, traders know there is a Fed cut coming, so in many traders mind, that should be enough to buy on big sell off like Tuesday, at least not adding shorts. I failed that.
3. As a result, today I could not put the trigger to commit more. If I sold on Tuesday before close, I got profit from the puts, and I could add today.
4. Now I need to ask, bearing a surprise Fed cut tomorrow, what Ben can say tomorrow that can trigger a great rally? What's the outcome of tomorrow's market reaction?
5. Even Ben promises a cut, I doubt we'll rally big.
6. And CNBC bills Ben's speech as the biggest in his career, almost telling people again and again, Fed will kill the bears and rally the bulls.
7. I don't know, pin too much hope on one single speech may disappoint bulls.
8. Think about this, traders won't commit too much ahead of a long weekend, knowing all the issues are still out there. Another shoe can drop any minute.
9. And if the economic forces are stronger than Fed, I don't think they can cure it with rate cuts.
10. Unless, of course, the economy is stronger than we thought, we'll work all the issues out, with Fed's help, then we'll rally from here.
11. I happen to think the issues are real, and we need some kind of adjustment in the markets before we resume the rally. So a correction is very likely. Bear market or not, the jury is still out.
12. So this brings me back to my old idea, the market will test recent low, when and from where, I don't know. Fed can delay this, but they can't prevent it.
13. So I'll sit on my shorts and puts, on the edge!
14. If the market rally from here to new high, then I'm dead wrong and will kill me again! I don't want to take it on the chin again!
15. Another surprise is the VIX, it's up with market up, very strange indeed. This happened before the August 16th. On August 8th, the market was up big, but VIX is pretty much flat (not down), and on August 10th, the market was up and down, but was pretty much flat, and VIX rose! Like today!
16. VIX is telling us a storm is on the way.
17. But you never know, maybe this time Ben can save the market again and cure the credit issue along the way, and VIX will go back in teens in no time. If that's the case, we the bears will be in big trouble.
18. Before that, let's put on a brave face and see if Fed can rally the market.