Wait

I'm glad I sold SSO, SSRI and calls last Friday. I kept only URZ, which did great today, up 18% to 3.2. Market was flat today, with Dow up 100, then down 100, and closed up 40 points. S&P was down a fraction.

1. Uranium is really a long term play. Sure URZ can go down to 2.5 again, maybe below 2. But long term, as long as there is no fraud, I see it touches 10 within 2 to 3 years. So I think it came down from 7.5 early this year to 2.5 last Thursday, due to speculative money out of it, is a great buying opportunity. But I'll keep adding to it if the price move below 3. This is mainly an investment, not a trade.
2. For general market, I'll wait it out this time, until I can decide which way to go. Short or long.
3. Today the 3 months treasury yield tumbled to 2.95%, that's 18% drop, and the biggest rally in 3 months treasury since Oct. 1987!
4. Yes, flight to safety is one the of reason. But that's still can't explain why a huge drop like this.
5. Either traders are expecting a Fed rate cut very soon, like tomorrow or this week; or traders are forcing the Fed to cut rate.
6. There is a third possibility, we have something big coming, maybe something bad.
7. VIX was down more than 12% to 26.33. So people are expecting a little stable trading ahead. But 26.33 is still very high in the last 4 years. So we may not get some extreme trading activity like last week, the market will likely to have 100 up and down in Dow on the same day this week, like today.
8. Many people argued we should buy when VIX is high. This is a very smart move in normal environment, but we're not in this environment. I think it's a good idea to sit mostly in cash and see how the market goes.
9. I will probably short if the market rallies too fast and hit key resistance area. The first one is at 1460, and next one 1490.
10. I probably will long if the market test recent lows this week or next. 1400 and 1370 are two support lines.
11. Both cases, it's a trade, not an investment.