Wednesday, September 12, 2007

The spirit is willing, the flesh is weak

I was very surprised the market held very strong today, on top of yesterday's strong showing. You thought a patriotic rally and no bad news yesterday therefore we rallied, today, here were the high line news, you thought the market would give up some gains, but it finished strong (flat) today:
  1. U.S. dollar hit all time lows against Euro. So a Fed cut will put further pressure on the dollar, therefore not good for dollar based assets, including U.S. equity market and bonds. Falling dollar is one of the factors behind the 1987 Black Monday crash.
  2. Oil hit all time high, over $80 for the first time. So that's inflationary, energy happens to be one of the non-essential items (another is food) Fed excludes from calculating core inflation. So we don't have issue there.
  3. Signs of credit problems re-emerged as Barclay's (BCS) was reported to inject $1.5 bln into a third fund, Golden Key. Late in the day, however, Citigroup (C) attempted to calm investors’ concern by issuing a statement that their subprime losses were declining.
  4. NY Post, Countrywide seeks more capital, taking decisive steps to ensure future "growth"(or survival). I thought they already took decisive steps a few weeks and days before: taking full 11.5B line of credit; 2B equity investment from Bank of America; cut 12,000 of employee(1/5 of total). And now this? Remember, it's price was at $16.6, below the $18 Bank of America paid for the 2B. And CFC only covers one of every five mortgages in US.

But I was dead wrong and bet against the tide:My recent actions in the market. I felt clueless about what's driving this strong U.S. market, only 5% off all time high in S&P500!?

  1. Maybe the article about Patriots spying on Jets is right, the U.S. market is also filled with cheating activities, for these of us who are clueless, we'll finish last: If you're not cheating, you're not trying
  2. Maybe Fed cured all the issue that can trigger another black Monday:Black Monday 1987
  3. If the Fed cuts enough (50 basis points), good for equity market, what about dollar?
  4. If Fed doesn't cut enough (25 basis points), what about the price already in the market?
  5. Fed is cornered between a rock and a hard place.
  6. Still I have no one to blame but myself, I thought I knew something about market, I learned the history and past patterns about the market.
  7. But like Churchill once said, the only thing we learned from history is we don't learn from history.
  8. I should know better.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

simpletrade, I feel and think the same. There is a trend of strong midday rally in the past few days. Again, as I said in the past, market could go either way every time regardless of news, but in the long term it will reflect the economy. Think about Shanghai index which go from 1000 to 5200 in a little over 2 years. When majority crowd only think about buying and buying more on dips then it's hard for market to fall like in the past. People are now trained to think positively that everything is good and ignore the bads. Market seems to be that way too. The past few days it even heads up on bad news due to expectation of 50 pts Fed cut. Again, market could go either way towards Sept 18th, so just follow the market and trade only if there's very high chance of making money. My personal opinion is that market will go down from now, but it's just my bias and I could be wrong.

Yesterday I read about Jesse Livermore at Wiki. It's said that he lost his fortune because he didn't follow his own rules. So, I'm sure most of us have rules but the winners are those who can leave their ego, bias, and emotion behind and can discipline to follow rules. I'm better than before on this, but still have room for improvement.

Anonymous said...

Simple, This guy has good cycle algorithms and they are working in this time frame: http://chartsedge.com/

The peak will be Monday close, then sell sell sell. The FED will disapoint regarless of what they do.

Also, follow this free group for the best timers in the market: timeandcycles yahoo group.

Good luck. Go long at 10:30 am and hold till Monday prior to close, then short. FWIW,

curt

Anonymous said...

I posted the first comment. I tend to agree with Curt now. Market continues rally on bad news as it's now pricing in 50 pts rate cut, so around Monday or Tuesday, then market will sell-off. The worse the news, the more likely Fed will cut 50 pts. After news is out, then it's sell-on-news routine.

ryan