Tuesday, September 18, 2007

What a joke

  1. WTF wrong with me?
  2. Market rallied almost 3% today on Fed's 50 bps cut.
  3. The Fed had said in its previous three statements that inflation was the main concerns. Now they started to unleash the gate of stagflation.
  4. We should have a short term rally, very likely to all time high.
  5. We will have a recession and inflation: inflation is already here, if you eat and drive; recession maybe here already, if you try to sell a house.
  6. The Fed rescued risky investors today, nothing more and nothing less, with market only 4% from all time high before the announcement, after today, it's only 2% from all time high.
  7. You never see a crisis this close to the top.
  8. Gold and precious metals, commodities are places to be. The bubble goes on, maybe last into 2008. But after that, we'll have a long bear market.
  9. Fed's decision is to make the bubble bigger.
  10. If you're not taking the riskiest asset in the market, you're not trying.
  11. I am so stupid to trust the Fed will honor the value of dollar, now I think dollar will be worthless in 10 years.
  12. From now on, I will not play options, I will drastically reduce shorts.
  13. I lost my right to play these risky positions.
  14. I have to beg for forgiveness for my gambling spirit and the mistakes and pains I have caused.
  15. If nothing else, I will be a better person in life, I will learn from these mistakes and walk away from gambling.

I will play three patterns in the future:

  1. Extremely oversold conditions and extremely overbought conditions.
  2. New highs.
  3. Long term fundamental plays.

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