Tuesday, July 8, 2008

Reversal day?

I was lucky yesterday to add UYG again in the low 18s, sometimes, heart beats brain!
We need follow through the next few days to confirm a reversal in the market. And unless something bad happens, we'll likely to get a meaningful bounce that will last a few weeks (or days) that can bring major indices back to its 50EMA. Like a 10% move. But a few things can derail the bounce:
  1. Oil spikes again.
  2. Financials sell off again.
  3. Bad news in earnings.

I think since people just started to unwind the oil long positions, it's unlikely it will spike again. And we had FNM and FRE news yesterday, so financials are not out of woods yet, but another 10% bounce in XLF is reasonable, that will bring XLF back to 22.5 and UYG back to 25.

Still need market to confirm this. Don't use my target to guide my trade, use market's price action to guide me.

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