Wednesday, November 19, 2008

Lick my wound and sell more

I lick my wound and sell more positions at loss today. And that's a good decision so far. Since Sept. 2008, all my best decisions are selling the positions, all my bad decisions are purchase cheap stocks. That's the summary of this market.
  1. Lot of people, me included, expect a bounce, a strong rally.
  2. On the other hand, the descending triangle in major index, is near broken. We're sitting on the cliff, we can drop another 20% from current level.
  3. I know there is a chance we'll have a 10% bounce tomorrow, but I rather have cash than seeing the positions drop another 20%.
  4. If I buy them when it drops 20%, just come back to current level, I gain 25%.
  5. I know it's late to sell now, but it's never too low to sell and it's never too high to buy.
  6. On economic front, big three are begging; Warren Buffet lost over 10 Billion since he started to buy; and ^TNX is telling people, something even worse is happening.
  7. There are lot of fear, and yet it's not the real panic. EEV and FXP, these two bear ETFs are less than 50% of their high; JPM "just" made new 52 week low today(which is great comparing to C, which repeating new lows everyday), while C closed at 6.4.
  8. Think about this, if big three auto fail, and I am sure they had borrowed some loans from some big banks, that will cause another round of panic?
  9. CMBS is the new word today. Another shoe to drop?
  10. I sold most and still had a few positions. Wait to add when S&P is in 700. Another 10% or even 20% drop is not impossible now we're sitting on the cliff, can jump off anytime.
  11. No one knows for sure how we get out of this mess we're in, but there are lot of things are not priced in yet. In 1929, Dow crashed from 400 to 200, and yet in 1932, the low is 40. We're in better position now than in 1929, but who is to say, now is the bottom and buy? Maybe the real bottom is in 2009?
  12. When internet bubble crashed in 2000, the real bottom is not reached until 2002. And now we're first year in this unparalleled decline.
  13. I have to add long term perspective. Wait to buy at lower price.
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