Thursday, March 1, 2007

PPT in action?

Market:

  1. Today the market recovered nicely from the early rout, only down a fraction. Some people speculated that the PPT (Plunge Protection Team established after 1987 crash) may indeed rescue the market at the beginning, to prevent disaster.
  2. Greenspan retracted his Monday speech and said a recession in the U.S. is possible, though not probable this year, in an effort to calm the market. It's a nice spin, Alan. Just like what Bernanke did yesterday. Their effort to talk up the market makes me wonder if there is more serious issue ahead of us.
  3. The news that Oracle will buy Hyperion for $3.3 Billion provided support to market. And the manufacturing data lifted the spirit as well.
  4. The market acted what I expected, down sharply out of the gate, so I didn't add anything.
  5. But then, Dow erased 140 points of the 200 point loss and I decided to add. I added QID and SDS, both are ultra short ETFs.
  6. It proved too early, eventually, dow was down only 35 and Nasdaq only down 12. It is difficult to time a better entry in a volatile market. Later of the day, I added another QID position, at its low of the day, which is good.
  7. So now I have a big QID position, plus RIMM puts and QQQQ puts, and SDS.
  8. But I'm not worried about this, the market is heading down, just how quickly and to what the magnitude, I'm not sure.
  9. Just like in a bull market, if you think it's a correction or start of the bear market, like I do, then it's critical to enter early. I hope this will prove to be true.

PM and uranium closed sharply lower:

  1. Yesterday's exit of the last GDX, EMU and URZ positions proved right, it's down bigger than the market today. I think people are taking profits in PM and uranium shares in this uncertain time, just like I did the previous two days. So there is no place to hide unless you're shorting, which is what I'm doing now.
  2. But if market keep going down, then I'll move into PM stocks again, I think long term, they're far better asset than the stock markets. So I'll keep watching and build my watching list.
  3. PM shares will provide the next golden opportunity in this year and next few years.

RIMM was up a fraction:

  1. RIMM was up a fraction today. I didn't take any action here. Have enough puts, don't want to commit more, it's just too risky!
  2. The news next Monday will determine it's short term direction, which I predict will be sharply lower.
  3. General market can also pull it lower if there is no significant material in the release to drive the price one way or the other.

What's next?

  1. I think tomorrow, the fact that it's Friday, may cause people to sell ahead of weekend, so I won't be surprised if market close lower again tomorrow.
  2. And depends on what happened this weekend, we may have a black Monday.
  3. VIX clearly shows there is great amount of uncertainty and people start to worry about risks.
  4. I'll watch the market, may add QID or SDS again tomorrow. Other than that, I probably will do nothing.

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