Market:
- Today the market recovered nicely from the early rout, only down a fraction. Some people speculated that the PPT (Plunge Protection Team established after 1987 crash) may indeed rescue the market at the beginning, to prevent disaster.
- Greenspan retracted his Monday speech and said a recession in the U.S. is possible, though not probable this year, in an effort to calm the market. It's a nice spin, Alan. Just like what Bernanke did yesterday. Their effort to talk up the market makes me wonder if there is more serious issue ahead of us.
- The news that Oracle will buy Hyperion for $3.3 Billion provided support to market. And the manufacturing data lifted the spirit as well.
- The market acted what I expected, down sharply out of the gate, so I didn't add anything.
- But then, Dow erased 140 points of the 200 point loss and I decided to add. I added QID and SDS, both are ultra short ETFs.
- It proved too early, eventually, dow was down only 35 and Nasdaq only down 12. It is difficult to time a better entry in a volatile market. Later of the day, I added another QID position, at its low of the day, which is good.
- So now I have a big QID position, plus RIMM puts and QQQQ puts, and SDS.
- But I'm not worried about this, the market is heading down, just how quickly and to what the magnitude, I'm not sure.
- Just like in a bull market, if you think it's a correction or start of the bear market, like I do, then it's critical to enter early. I hope this will prove to be true.
PM and uranium closed sharply lower:
- Yesterday's exit of the last GDX, EMU and URZ positions proved right, it's down bigger than the market today. I think people are taking profits in PM and uranium shares in this uncertain time, just like I did the previous two days. So there is no place to hide unless you're shorting, which is what I'm doing now.
- But if market keep going down, then I'll move into PM stocks again, I think long term, they're far better asset than the stock markets. So I'll keep watching and build my watching list.
- PM shares will provide the next golden opportunity in this year and next few years.
RIMM was up a fraction:
- RIMM was up a fraction today. I didn't take any action here. Have enough puts, don't want to commit more, it's just too risky!
- The news next Monday will determine it's short term direction, which I predict will be sharply lower.
- General market can also pull it lower if there is no significant material in the release to drive the price one way or the other.
What's next?
- I think tomorrow, the fact that it's Friday, may cause people to sell ahead of weekend, so I won't be surprised if market close lower again tomorrow.
- And depends on what happened this weekend, we may have a black Monday.
- VIX clearly shows there is great amount of uncertainty and people start to worry about risks.
- I'll watch the market, may add QID or SDS again tomorrow. Other than that, I probably will do nothing.
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