If we don't have good things to say about others, just don't say it. Today I have nothing to say about the market.
- Apparently, RIMM's outage was great news for its stock, it recovered quickly from 128 (down in premarket due to the outage news) to close at 134. I gave up finding reason behind this powerful surge, there was none, trust me, I looked everywhere. I only find reasons for it to go down, not up. Did I miss anything?
- URZ,FRG and EMU continued their consolidation and pulled back, so did PM stocks, these are expected. Now I can work on these stocks and analysis may help you find a better entry and make money.
- I added small CFC puts when it hit 37.5, I thought that's the area it may pull back. But it burst through 200MA to close at 38.12. The only good thing I can say is, I just added a small position.
- Just like in February, there is lot of complacency in the market. And I said it's overbought for the last few days and it just kept climbing. CNBC showed an alert all day long to tell you the Dow is how many points away from record. Sometimes, you just need to watch CNBC for a few minutes to know if the market is near the top.
- We had a mixing earning results, the one from Yahoo was bad; and dollar hit new lows against other major currencies.
- The second news has very significant impact on U.S. economy, if China and Japan start to slow the purchase of U.S. debts (not withdrawing, just slowing), due to the falling dollar, then U.S. economy will be in bad shape, since we have huge debts, we just consume on the assumption that foreigners will lend us money. But this may end, which will drastically increase interest rate on our debts, put economy into long recession. Yes, this is just the beginning, but if dollar keep falling, we'll have many years of bad stock markets to come. It won't even cause a sharp correction, but it has long lasting impact on U.S. economy.
- I have only short ETFs and puts, plus cash in my portfolio. I'll be on the defensive side.
- By the way, I think it's just a matter of time we have another sharp drop like the one on February 27th. Maybe tomorrow, maybe on Friday, maybe next week. I just don't want to be on the long side when it happens.
- And April 19th, almost reminds me about Oct.19th,1987. it's been 20 years, people forget about risks in the market.
2 comments:
In my opinion, RIMM has gone down quite a lot after its last earnings. So, a bad news creates recapitulation and complete its consolidation, which triggers trend reversal. Service outage is usually short-term, ie. an hour or so, just need to restart the node and everything will return to normal (just like restarting PC when it hang). So, traders saw it as 'bargain' to drop 3 pts for very short term bad news.
Similarly, sometimes stocks which has gone up significantly may drop after earnings. Good news is the mark of trend reversal, ie. sell on news.
Thanks for sharing your thoughts. I learn a lot from you.
I hope it's not too late, but CFC (being the largest lender) has tremendous institution (smart money) support. They know that when the dust settles CFC will be even bigger.
Their's a bid under this stock!
I made a bit of money on CFC puts then I read analysis to this effect and threw in the towel. I'm not short any builder/lender now. If more loan loss news comes out maybe, but subprime losses is (unbelievably) past tense, a behind us issue.
My forcast services (also unbelievably) give gold / silver a down 3 months. I'm lossing big in AUY!
Uranium: I'm affraid of URZ because I haven't found any rational valuation source? My plan: buy leap calls on CCJ, FRG. When the CU/AU market turns back up: leap calls on NTO, SA BTU.
Coal is at the low of a new bull run. BTU is the best trade from my search.
Good luck and thanks, curt
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