I'm truly surprised what a few good news can do to this market, a little better pending home sales number (by NAR, who is biased to report good number only) and some good news from Iran and UK's standoff of hostages, and the market took off in a hurry?! Nasdaq was up 1.2% and Dow 1%.
- Now TA points to a push higher in the short term.
- I still think it won't be able to start a bull run from here.
- It may fail and then it's a faked break out?
- And I still think from FA perspective, it's a down market for 2007, and I think TA will eventually catch up with FA.
- I'm in bad shape again since all my positions are short or puts. It's wise to keep a great portion of portfolio in cash so you can get better entry for your wanted positions.
- The Feb.27th's gap is not filled yet, so we still have a long way to go before I give up the bearish view of the market.
- And PM is almost back to Feb.27th's level, so if I'm wrong this time, I may miss another chances since most my positions are in shorts. SSRI is very impressive, and URZ, EMU, FRZ were all higher than the Feb.27th level.
- I missed my chance to add PM and Uranium when they're low after the crash.
- It's frustrated that I'm on the wrong side of the market, and missed my favor sectors (PM and uranium) while seeing these stocks hit new highs!
Plan:
- Still hold on to these positions and see what market brings us next week.
- Still have chance to enter PM and uranium plays later. This time, my timing is off, but always get chance if you're right about the market now.
- So let's focus on what's next for the market.
- I think it is a little ahead of itself, the pending home sale number is not that good, and once market finds the truth (just like after the Fed's meeting, market rallied, once find the "truth" about Fed's real thinking, it came all the way back), it will correct itself.
- So I'll keep watching, but from a very difficult position.
3 comments:
I agree almost everything you said. I am also very frustrated short(lost a lot of money too). But when I saw oil down but oil stock up, I covered all my shorts and went long today. Based on today's action, I won't be surprised to see the Dow to break all time high in a hurry.
Why? no one knows for sure, but...
1) too much cash sitting on the side line, lot's of concerned shorts like you and me.
2) private fund buy public company like craze, pump in a lot of cash into the market
3) company itself is buying huge amout of share back
Here is my revised Plan:
1) going long but be very careful
2) look for signs that longs are exausted. buy back my oil put.
3) I plan to buy RIMM put again immediately after it reports "very good" earnings and stock shot up.
What do you think?
I am on a totally different playing field than you, but share similar agonies and apprehensions, which is why I am almost all-cash (and, I'll admit: afraid of what tomorrow may bring).
As an oldster, I also have free-and-clear water-front real estate in a great local economy, corporate bonds, stock in a private area (Houston) bank, etc.
But when I am tempted to tippy-toe back into the stock market, before I buy anything, I check here for a reality test!
Keep up the good (hard) work!
Post a Comment