Wrong again

I was wrong again with my latest positions since last Friday.I thought the market recovered too big too fast, so I added DIA puts as well as DXD since last Friday. Today with Dow surged 130 points to blow away the 13000, I'm wrong again.

1. AAPL had good earning after bell, so tomorrow morning, the Nasdaq should be higher. The momentum just keeps going.
2. From TA perspective, the addition of short last Friday was not bad, overbought with a new week of earnings and news. I thought the housing data would be bad, and what did that bring to the market?
3. Similarly, the addition of DIA puts today (yes, I added DIA puts again today, as well as small IBB puts) is not bad either. I expect a pull back, just don't know when. Maybe Friday, with bad GDP number.
4. But once you rely on hope, you're losing your trading game. Am I in front of a train leaving the station, or I pick the top of this trend at the exactly the right time?
5. I'll be patient and I will wait before I commit more on the short side.
6. I will liquidate if I think the bulls work out the overbought condition and successfully consolidate the recent gains. Now it's not there yet.
7. So be panic to sell now is the same as rushing to buy.