Tomorrow we can have market moving events in CPI, and other economic data. Let's see if the weakness in Nasdaq and Russell 2000 today is the indication of bad CPI or just people are uneasy about this week's number.
- Today I sold some DIA puts at loss and SPY puts at loss. Don't want to have too big of positions. Still have enough puts and shorts.
- Sold PTR calls at a small profit today. This again reminds me that by sell options quickly, sometimes you can make a profit. Don't want to risk too much on long as well.
- I bought some out of money CYD calls. It should release earning today, but I didn't see any. Another China play, but it's a speculative play. Found it had several big up days since last week on large volume, maybe something good to come?
- Will continue to play the long (China, maybe Biotech) on momentum stocks, and keep shorts and main puts on the overall markets.
- Today another news may have big impact on the world stocks down the road, that's the news from Pakistan. If the country falls into the hand of Islamic fundamentalist or somehow becomes unstable, the world will pay a heavy price for that. This is the country with nukes.
- Today's gold and precious metal actions continued to puzzle me, if the dollar is in a great bear market, why gold doesn't live up to its reputation of store of value?
- And uranium stocks like URZ, EMU and FRG continued its consolidation, which is good for us waiting on the sideline.
- And if the China bubble is at risk of bursting any time, why are people still buying into that like there is no tomorrow? Is this the end, or this is the start of another crazy up leg? Is this in the 99 stage of the internet bubble, or in the March 2000 of the internet bubble? Whoever accurately predict the exact timing (or close to it) of the fall of the Chinese market will make a great fortune.
- Tomorrow my take is we'll have a worse than expected CPI, but not much. And on Wednesday, we'll have a weaker than expected housing number, but not too much.
- And how market react to these numbers may give us a hint of the second half of the year.
- For the first time in last six weeks, we have two down days in S&P 500 out of four. More weakness to come is the tape the market tells me today.
7 comments:
It's been quite awhile since we've had a down day on Merger Mania Monday. My only long position right now is the QID. Volume was up significantly for QID today while it was higher on the downside for QQQQ. Today we were getting more than double the downside for Nasdaq 100 in the upward move of the QID. More buyers for the QID today.
Hopefully tomorrow will bring more bearish news. We'll know at 6:30 a.m. Mountain (My time).
David
I got nervous about the relentless rise in the DOW yesterday, then drove past the gas station where regular was up to $3.15 (we pay more here in rural Maine). "Core" numbers are nothing but gov't window dressing (if not outright lies). Consumer spending is in nosedive, yet the purchase of a company that lost a billion dollars last year (and the price of which was slashed from 36B to 7B in 9 years time) lifts the market. The question isn't about the economy right now; it's about when the momentum players head for the exits. Even in Vegas people eventually leave the casino to get some sleep.
It's obvious that we are near a top when the good CPI numbers this morning do little to prop up the market.
I'm hoping for a lot of growling from the dark corners of the forest!
David
Today, as of 2:30pm, I have sold all of my longs and am short FSLR & BG along with owning a bunch of QID. We'll see if it's possible for me to time a top ...
Hard not to throw in the towel when the Dow goes up triple digits on bs. Glad it pulled back, at least. Still, it really is something (disturbing?) when the Chinese market goes down 4% and we don't see profit-taking over here. Most of my friends have no interest in the stock market. And when I ask them whether they're spending more or less lately, they all say less. I just can't see how the combination of high energy costs and less home equity won't do a number on corporate profits. Am I missing something?
It's coming! Just a matter of time! The bears are out!
Hello, I also sold all my long positions and kept some of my puts today. I still think this market is due for 2-4% correction or even more. But now I am wodering if everyone on this board is not long anymore, who else will sell tomorrow? The chart of Nadaq is terrible. I will also short AMAT tomorrow if it opens above 19.
Post a Comment