Tuesday, May 15, 2007

Even better

Today's market action is even better than a straight down from the start. We had "good" CPI number, Dow made almost to 13500 before closed up only 30 points, while Nasdaq, Russell 2000 all closed in red.
  1. Dow formed a shooting star today and is the only man standing, I think it will follow rest of the markets after another record close today.
  2. Yesterday's sale of DIA puts and SPY puts turned out to be a great move, since the market was way up early in the morning. I bought DIA May and June puts again today, sold the the May puts before the close today for a great profit. I wanted to have enough cash if tomorrow is another crazy up day in Dow.
  3. I also added CROX puts. I think it's overextended, and a general market pullback will make it under 70s for sure. Currently this position is also ahead.
  4. The sale of PTR puts yesterday was also a good move, by the close of today, it's a loser, and I sold yesterday for a small profit.
  5. But not all the recent actions were great, the CYD calls turned out to be disaster in the morning, since it delayed the earning release. I doubled the size of the June calls on this one. And at the close of the day, it's not that bad. It went from down more than 10% at 9.5 to close at 10.5. Hopefully it will turn out well for me, this is truly a hedge against a continuous China crazy rally.
  6. And today I saw URZ was down hard, and I jumped in, now I'm down 10% on this position, and I didn't pick it at the top of the day. Talking about bad timing. Even though long term I love uranium play, I need to be careful on this one.
  7. From the comments, I saw David smartly keeps QID as the only position, Michael's comment indicates he's on the right side, and floorsmall sold all longs and went shorts at 2:30pm! Talking about great timing!
  8. From a late comment from Min, you're on the same page as floorsmall.
  9. You guys are great, regardless the markets go up or down, you have far better entries on shorts than me. Great job! I'm under water for all my short ETFs and puts except the ones I added very recently. I need the market to crash to get all my losses back.
  10. So it's critical to have great entry, it gives you time and reason to hold a winner! Bad timing keeps you off balance and may force you to do some desperate moves.

What's next:

  1. I think the market will have trouble to move up in short term.
  2. Now seems like it's ready to pullback. I expect a small crash near term, like 5%. But who knows tomorrow's housing number, since everyone expect the worst, any relatively good number will bring up the bulls. That's why I sold the profitable DIA puts today to have more cash for just this purpose.
  3. The bulls have the control of the market for so long, it won't give up without a fight. But today is the first day it failed a big rally. So all signs point to a weak market ahead us.
  4. I'll be nimble in this volatile market and try to make money by being on the right side. There is no bull side or bear side, you need to be on the right side, this is the key.
  5. And move quickly if you are wrong. I did such bad job on this, cut loss is as important as select a winner.

One thing to remember:

  1. People are talking about there are too many traders too bearish on the market, therefore the rally is not over.
  2. But, becuase of the above logic, more traders and hedge funds go long without care, since they think they're oversmart the other traders (shorts). That's precisely why we even have this crazy rally in the first place. I think it will end badly.
  3. But I don't know when. So just because we all went shorts today doesn't mean we're on the wrong side. We're such a small group in the market. Hopefully, we're onto something. But only time will tell and we still have a lot to learn and share.

2 comments:

Michael Rottersman said...

I had done well this year by keeping small positions. Now,as I've mentioned, I've got everything in DXD. Not a smart move. The one thing that keeps me partially sane is that markets seem to fall a lot faster than they go up--though that would be a feat in this case. And to repeat myself once more: how come the financial press isn't focusing on the wilting of the almighty consumer? It used to be all we ever heard about is how consumer spending is 70% of GDP. We seem to be in another "new world order" phase, forgetting that US spending is also 20% of worldwide GDP. Doesn't it hurt the Chinese economy if sales slow at Wal-Mart. Walk up and down Wal-Mart's aisles--see if you can find something not made in China. Old, boring, common sense news, I know, but that's what usually prevails in the end.

Anonymous said...

I think it will repeat yesterday's action, close lower at the end.