Big fish

Check the DIA chart, the new highs with lower MACD. You have to think the possibility of a pull back is very high.

I'm not going to lie, I took another beating today. Dow closed at yet another new records, the 23rd (or whatever the number) new records in 2007. Unlike last two days, this time Dow was joined by S&P500, Nasdaq and Russell 2000. Market took a while to figure out that "bad news" was really good news, so here we go again.

1. You don't need to read the headline news, a bull market will find good news to rally, and a bear market will find bad news to sell.
2. I added some DIA puts when Dow shot up 40 points in the first surge.
3. When it turned negative, I didn't add, I wanted to be patient; but I didn't sell either, I thought finally I caught a big fish.
4. Then it started to push higher, and I thought it would fade at the end.
5. But no, it's another short squeeze at the end, and I added another DIA puts and QQQQ puts just before the close today.
6. I'm lost in this stock world that has anything but common sense, so a normal approach won't work here.
7. And we the shorts were at fault too: we added fuel to this fire. And bulls are encouraged by the shorts and force shorts to cover. This cycle goes on to make it even more attractive to short. But just like 2000, the bubble will burst, but we don't know when.
8. Let me repeat, we don't know when.
9. He or she who correctly predicts the exact timing is due to luck more than skill.
10. It can be tomorrow, it can be next week, it can be next few months.
11. It's a big fish, if you catch it at the right time; if you don't, you may be eaten by this big fish and you will be part of the bigger fish.
12. This is the best game ever, and reason and logic are not part of it. You need mental toughness, need enough cash to survive, need to be alive when the big fish is caught. Most important of all, you need luck.
13. But you have choice, you can walk away and sit on the sideline.
14. Or you can even join the bulls to have some fun.
15. But don't cry foul when it crashes; don't cry foul when you've been caught twice by first being shorts when it rallies and then being longs when it crashes.
16. The choice is yours, the decision is yours.
17. I want to be in the market, I want to try. I promise, I'll be careful.