Today's market was flat, Dow didn't close at record high today, but it did break 13500 before closed a little lower today. And Nasdaq closed lower as well.
- Now I'm still heavily in Ultra short ETFs and puts. I think the market will have at least one pull back, and I'll sell a big portion of the short positions when that happens. The most likely case is next week. I had to take losses on my May puts, and added ONXX today, it's another long position for me.
- I added ONXX, it's a speculative biotech play. From all I can find, it will deliver a good news in ASCO on June 1st. From the link below, seems like the news is already in the media, see Leak Info from ASCO?
- ONXX may also be a target: Bayer may Buy ONXX?
- I am on the edge now. Too much shorts and not enough cash. Need to be nimble to go through this market without further losses in the near future.
- DIA formed a Doji star today. Considering it's up 1500 points since March low, I'm looking for 3-5% cut in the next few months.
- People started to short DIA since early May are under water now, since then, another 500 points added to Dow with only two down days, including today.
- Out of all my ultra short ETFs, TWM is the only one that's ahead. Because I added it late, and Russell 2000 is the weakest among all major indices. So when you short, pick the weak one, not the strong one. I added mainly DXD about the same time, but it's under water since Dow was so strong lately.
- Dow's recent chart from March low of 12000 to 13500 today (12.5% gain) is the strongest showing of any major indices in U.S. since the 1999-2000 bubble year.
- It's really hard to be on the wrong side for more than two months, it's very difficult to maintain your balance.
- During these time, I tried different plans: I cut some shorts and used URZ to make some money; and recently used short term option play to make a few bucks, overall, I'm in denial and I am afraid of losing more if I sell all the shorts. But I guess that's what I need to do, cut one position at a time, so if market starts to fall, I'll at least catch some of the moves.
- Need to raise cash at the end of each day, pure and simple.
4 comments:
Is there going to be a correction? No, the market will go straight up forever. Housing, gas, China--none of it matters. I keep reminding myself that the market will go up until it goes down. The only thing that doesn't diminish are the explanations (rationalizations?) for why the market does what it does. I'm just blathering, I know. The truth is, I never thought I could be more wrong!
China's decision on rates and currency may cause a crash in Chinese market next week, and that will cause a correction in the way overbought US markets, now to be on the short side is safer than on the long side.
And cash maybe the best place to be if you're not sure.
I'd give anything to be in cash. Unfortunately I went all in with DXD when the Dow hit 13,200. My wife counsels patience, and in 19 years of marriage she's been more often right than wrong. I also trust her on this (crazy, perhaps) because she has no interest in the stock market, follows it not at all, but tells me the economy is going to hell in a hand-basket. She reports no lines at Target, friends not shopping, etc. This is still the REAL story, in my opinion (not worth much at the moment, I admit). OK, I've beat myself up enough for one day...
Again, the key is company specific earnings. Once they start to miss, the market will sell off much faster than it went up. We're half way through the second quarter. There is a real possibility we can see some more gains. However, a sharp correction can come at any time. I still believe gold is the place to be as the dollar will continue to slide.
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