Sunday, May 20, 2007

Clear

China's decision to raise rates this weekend, plus the conditions in Chinese markets, makes me think the short term crash in Chinese market is very likely. After that, US will follow to certain degree. This is clear to me. And it can turn into a big correction this summer.
  1. Don't count out the possibility that the market will ignore all the fundamentals and push to another record week.
  2. Don't count out the possibility that the market will pullback a little, and then make another assault to all time records.
  3. All things considered, now is time to be careful, but only change your view if the fundamentals change, don't change your view because the crowds are saying so.
  4. The liquidity is one the the fundamental reason we have a record stock all over the global, but it always ends.
  5. There is a possible black Monday in Shanghai stock market, then what happens we need to watch carefully.
  6. Keep enough cash, and using short as the primary means to make money. That's all I can tell myself now.
  7. It's not a shame to lose money in this market, many great traders already did. There are some traders luckily on the long side and make money, but it needs a great skill to turn bearish at the right time.
  8. Some traders make money because of luck, but great traders make money because of themselves. So if you're a great trader, you're going to show your greatness sooner or later.
  9. On the other hand, if you're a bad trader, why do you even care how bad you are? Since you'll disappear sooner or later.
  10. Do what you think is right, study and work hard, but don't do what others tell you.
  11. Be yourself.
  12. Change because you want to, you really believe. Don't follow others even you're against that in your heart.
  13. Eventually, these who are great, are due to their convictions, not due to they always listen to the right people at the right time (luck). Luck will run out, but your heart and your brain are always with you.

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