Saturday, July 28, 2007

Next week 7/30-8/3

After last week's 4.9% drop in S&P500, and 1% of these in the last 30 minutes of trading on Friday, I expect a weak open on Monday, even a Black Monday (5% drop or more) is possible. But a 1% drop at some point of the trading on Monday is very likely. For next week, here is my plan (don't do this for your trade, it's very risky plan, and you may lose all):
  1. My indicators are all strong buy here. So I'll trade based on these.
  2. If the S&P500 opens lower, but stay above 1448(around 200MA), then I'll add a small size of call positions and SSO. I think this is the most likely case.
  3. If the S&P breaks 1448, but above 1420, then I'll add a medium size of call positions. This is the second likely case.
  4. If S&P breaks 1420, but above 1366(400MA), I'll add all in with calls gradually. I doubt this one, giving the extreme oversold conditions, but what do I know?
  5. If S&P breaks 1366(400MA), I think I'll use margin to add calls. Maybe not, no need to borrow to trade.
  6. If S&P breaks 1300 and lower, I'll sit there watching and crying.
  7. On the other hand, when there is a bounce, when S&P close to 1490-1500, that's the area I'll unload all calls and SSO.
  8. Considering we're off 100 points in 7 trading days. The 50MA is 1520, so bounce back to 1490-1500 is likely.
  9. Also, buying some OTM puts is not a bad idea, in case we head straight down to hell. But these money should be considering gone, so be small.

Some of the indicators:

  1. VIX, new high in 4 years. The VIX option is another tradeable way to play this market, buy Aug puts. Again a very risky play, I rather using SPY or IWM options.
  2. NYSE new highs and new lows: 7:222.
  3. Nasdaq new higs and new lows:16:167.
  4. RSI(14) is 34. Not too bad for bears, still room to go.

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