Thursday, July 5, 2007

Tough to get this market down

It's really tough to get this market down, considering we have 10 year yield up, oil above $70, dollar under pressure, and yet the market, specially the speculative plays like RIMM, BIDU, AAPL continued to lead the Nasdaq to another multi-year record. This is the sign of the end of a bull run.
  1. Unfortunately for me, I think it's very close to a sell off, but I don't know when.
  2. Tomorrow if we have a very strong job number, should press the yield up more and may bring down the market.
  3. Again today we had light volume, this is the only thing good for bears.
  4. I added TWM and IWM puts again. If the market take a break, Russell 2000 will lead the decline.
  5. The slow summer for market is here and Nasdaq is very overbought, I think either it's tomorrow, or it's next week, we'll have a pull back.
  6. Yesterday RIMM, BIDU all took a hits, today they ran back up. And Chinese market dropped 5% yesterday. Again these are signs of a meaningful top for a market.
  7. I have to wait patiently for the best entry, and so far I didn't do this right. I'm at least two days early. But the odds are in favor of shorts now. So that's how I positioned.
  8. I won't touch speculative plays like RIMM, BIDU and AAPL. I'll short the general markets.

2 comments:

floorsmall said...

speculative plays like AAPL ???????????????????? Since when did AAPL become speculative.

curt504 said...

JMO, AAPL is a short. iphone will tank along with cingular and their crumy edge network.

You're shorts this time should do well next week through Thurs or so. Hold tight.

Good luck, curt