Thursday, August 16, 2007

Panic sell off

This is the panic sell off I was looking for. After two more than 1% drop the previous days, we had, during the low of the day, Dow, Nasdaq and S&P down 2.7%, 3% and 2.6%, lot of strong stocks were trashed as bad as good stocks, and yet financial stocks like GS, BSC all recovered strongly mid-day. This is a clear sign of short term bottom.
  1. S&P managed to closed in green today, thanks to beaten down financials. Dow down a fraction. Let's see if we can have a follow through tomorrow and next week.
  2. Tomorrow is option expiration day, and we had 4 previous Friday's sold off late afternoon. So if tomorrow we reverse the trend, then it's a short term bottom.
  3. On the other hand, if we sell off again after 3PM, then I'm really not sure where this market is heading.
  4. From TA perspective, today is a classic V shape panic bottom. And we headed lower yet again after 3PM, only to be bought again.
  5. Short term, I expect S&P to bounce, the target is around 1440-1460. I don't expect it to go above 1460. But let's see if we can get there before we're talking about a bounce.
  6. If we sell off again tomorrow, all bets are off.
  7. Normally, we should have at least a strong opening tomorrow. Maybe can hold into the close.
  8. I added long positions today. SSO, URZ, SSRI, DIA calls and QQQQ calls.
  9. SSO and calls are playing for the short term bounce.
  10. URZ and SSRI are also for short term bounce, but if there is none, these two are great long term stocks to hold. I will not be surprised to see them double or triple in the next 12-18 months.
  11. Because Fed added liquidity to the system, it will add inflation pressure, and good for gold and commodity in the long run.

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