Wednesday, August 15, 2007

Ugly market

Oversold market sold off again today. Now it's really an ugly market. It's very difficult to trade.
  1. On one hand, all indicators say we're due for a vicious bounce. Shorts will cover on the next big bounce.
  2. On the other hand, we have this credit crunch issue, another shoe will drop at any minute.
  3. A black Monday kind of event can't be rule out.
  4. I sold my DIA puts early for a small profit. I thought I was lucky to see it dropped way below my price when market bounced early, in the end, if I hold on to it, I could make a huge profit!
  5. Now I won't chase the short/put, I need to see a bounce before I jump in.
  6. I won't chase long/call either, I need to see another panic sell off before I join.
  7. Last few days, sell in the afternoon is a sure bet. But this can change at any minute!
  8. Yes, I will miss lot of chances, but now it's a very tough time to make money. Cash is a great position to have if you're not sure.
  9. If people are worried about the credit issues, we probably will sell off into Friday's close.
  10. But since many people are talking about Black Monday, we probably won't get it.

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