I won't trade for a while, maybe a month, maybe more. I'll take a break. Look to get back if the market indeed crashes in October. I lost huge amount of money and now I need to review my process, I hope to make a comeback, but with the way things went the last few months, I may not be able to come back. In that case, good luck to you all.
- Money management is the most important thing in trading. I failed miserably in this.
- Don't trade options unless you consistently time the market right in stock. I failed miserably in this.
- I feel ashamed of myself, the way things went the last few months.
- I feel more ashamed that I feel ashamed of myself.
- Good luck to your all.
14 comments:
Your blog had some good points and it keeps me in stride as I went/am going through the same torture. But I am still trying to claw back Good luck to you. Once you are on the right side of things they will keep you going.
I feel your pain too. Market just ignores every bad news and keep going up. There's one article which mentions that world wide stock market advances are due to globalization.
ryan
Don't give up. Work on your plan, money management and learn not to be BIASED. Markets can remain irrational longer that you can solvent. Learn more about futures because options can kill you in the short run if you are wrong and don't know how to cut your loses. Thank you for the blog, I enjoyed reading what you had to say. Stay strong brother.
Ryan
I posted to you a while back that what I thought you needed to implement was an overall DEFINED investment strategy for your assets.
Asset allocation and risk management are the basic keys to success. Although our choices to accomplish this can be distorted by our personal views of the economic landscape.
One thing is for sure. Trading in options is a losing proposition for 90% of all players. With odds like that stacked against you, you'd have to have an economic death wish to even try again. Even playing the ETF's can only work as a small part of an overall investment strategy to allocate you funds. Otherwise just using ETF's instead of options stills makes you a trader who has to guess the direction of that particular sector on any given short term basis. Which is almost the same as just being a "speculator". Sometimes you get a hot hand and you think your great at it and then the world turns upside down and knocks you out of the game.
I've been in the market for over 40 years (investor and trader) and it is really all about "getting rich slowly" - not being a hot shot trader. My greatest losses have always come when I lose sight of my own rules for investing and load up for the "trade" that will bring in big bucks fast.
So after you go through your catharsis and are ready to re-enter the market, learn to think in terms of investing NOT in re-learning how to trade.
regards,
HLGold (aka "quikpik_34234)
Sorry to see you lose money. I enjoy reading your insightfull market comments every day. I think I should just follow your lead and stop trading too, if smart guy like you lose money, what makes me think I can do any better? So today I poured all my money into GG Oct. 30 calls, this is my last gamble, either win or lose, I will stop. Good luck!
Thank you guys for your support and suggestions! I really appreciate it!
I think this time, central bankers of the U.S., Euro and England (which made a 180 degree turn last week to bail out Northen Rock), made the difference! This is the only reason market is approaching to new high now. If they didn't act, I think the market could crash or at least pull back at least 5% from its current level.
This is the danger of trading, you're against the lot of uncertain factors, and you don't know lot of insider's information.
Since Fed acted to lower the rate, and they will do so in the future, only fundamentally sound investment is gold and precious metals, but if market crash, PM will go down hard too.
I'm sitting on the sideline now, still puzzled by what happened to me and try to figure out a conservative way of investing/trading in the market.
And I have to wonder if these efforts are worth it or not.
Good luck to you all!
Hi Min, based on my experience on options, I think if you really like GG, use stock rather than calls. Yes, you may miss the big profit, on the other hand, if the market turns against you, you won't lose big too.
I said this even didn't check GG's chart. For me, if I ever make a come back, the first thing I will do, is to make sure I won't trade options any more.
Best luck to you.
Hi Min and Simple,
Watch out for gold to counter trend right about now! GLD and GG is already looking like it will roll over for a short cycle.
Smart money gets in, makes the fast move. Dumb money (retail) sees the move, wants to retire early, buys options and the smart money takes their quick profit and waits for the return to the channel/opposite side of the bollenger.
The dumb option buyers loose 80%.
I'd sell Friday regardless of win/loss. Front month options drop like rocks over weekends, remember that!!! Options are only good for 1-5 day trades, never over weekends. Your thoughts Simple?
FWIW department
Best of luck, curt
FWIW and just sharing,
I've heard two angles today. Retail: god GLD is heading to 840, I'm buying more. The chartests and agnostics: hmmm looks like a reversion to the mean topping today, USD is gaining strength, JPY is dropping, Fed govners are talking hawkish. You're holding Oct GSS calls. It's Friday, what do you do? :)
My thought would be to sell the calls, buy GLD shares and forget the market till Feb or so '09.
BTW, for small cap bios, nano's, all miners, when someone posts: it's going to top -some next high-, it's time to sell everything. I've learned this the same way folks here have learned about options. Me too on those too, btw.
FWIW and GLTA, curt
I think in this market, you don't want to chase, just protect your money. If the earnings are bad, the market will have a big correction if not a crash in October. Now people are buying because of Fed rate cuts. If earnings are good, then the market may holds on to test new high. I won't add gold here, right now sectors that are cheap are REITs, anf some financials, but the housing is not hitting bottom yet. So protecting your money is the key here. IMHO.
Long term, gold and PM should do well since Dollar will tank, but now Dollar maybe oversold here, so I won't chase. Kind of agree with Curt here. I think now is a time to wait and figure out what's next before jump in.
simple trade - I have enjoyed your blog for almost a year now. You are one of the good guys - dont forget that. Dont give up. Think of this that we all do much like a game of football. One moment your grinding away, the next your in the air cathing a big gain - then your on you arse and the ball is loose and going in the other direction for a loss. As the coach says, take a break, go to the sidelines, look at the big picture from both sides of the field - make adjust and come out with a new plan. I have lost tons the last year..took a break and made adjustments - a new plan
I found some good articles on psychology of trading/investing in Money magazine Sept 07 edition. You might want to check out. There's also a good book "Secrets of the Millionaire Mind" which is #1 NYT, WSJ, and USA Today Bestseller. Lots of good lessons and advice to learn from.
ryan
I miss your posts. Are you coming back?
You need to come back and soon.
Post a Comment